Matchday 29 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 5, 2016
Chelsea 1–1 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Chelsea and Stoke drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Chelsea win 4 of 10, Stoke 4, and 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.5).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 1 | 1.38 |
 Stoke City | 1 | 1.52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −2 Chelsea about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 4, 2 end level, Stoke win 4.
- 1 CHE 1 STK 0
- 2 CHE 2 STK 1
- 3 CHE 3 STK 1
- 4 CHE 4 STK 1
- 5 CHE 2 STK 2
- 6 CHE 0 STK 0
- 7 CHE 0 STK 3
- 8 CHE 0 STK 2
- 9 CHE 1 STK 2
- 10 CHE 2 STK 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 40%, 24% end level, Stoke win 36%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 8.2% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 11.4% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 20.5% |
| Draw | 24.1% |
| Stoke by 1 | 19.3% |
| Stoke by 2 | 9.6% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 6.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 20 | 1 | 1.38 | −0.38 |
 Stoke | 17 | 1 | 1.52 | −0.52 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Bertrand Isidore Traoré scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 84' | Mame Biram Diouf scored from a shot | 0.21 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20' | Mame Biram Diouf didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% CHE |
| 2 | 32' | Bertrand Isidore Traoré didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% STK |
| 3 | 35' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% CHE |
| 4 | 38' | Bertrand Isidore Traoré scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +26% CHE |
| 5 | 58' | Xherdan Shaqiri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% CHE |
| 6 | 84' | Mame Biram Diouf scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +36% STK |
| 7 | 90' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +5% CHE |
| 8 | 91' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% CHE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 34% · draw 25% · Stoke 41%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 40% · draw 24% · Stoke 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 29 matches, 2015-16 · Chelsea · Stoke
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Swansea 1–0 Norwich Mar 5, 2016 · replay 48% for Swansea
- Southampton 1–1 Sunderland Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–3 Bournemouth Mar 5, 2016 · replay 61% for Bournemouth
- Man City 4–0 Aston Villa Mar 5, 2016 · replay 97% for Man City
- Everton 2–3 West Ham Mar 5, 2016 · replay 32% for West Ham
- Watford 0–1 Leicester Mar 5, 2016 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Tottenham 2–2 Arsenal Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Man United Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for Liverpool