Matchday 29 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 5, 2016
Man City 4–0 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Aston Villa 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man City win 9 of 10. Man City made the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 4 | 3.26 |
 Aston Villa | 0 | 0.45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Man City about even · −3 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 9, 0 end level, Aston Villa win 1.
- 1 MCI 1 AVL 0
- 2 MCI 2 AVL 0
- 3 MCI 3 AVL 0
- 4 MCI 3 AVL 0
- 5 MCI 4 AVL 0
- 6 MCI 5 AVL 0
- 7 MCI 5 AVL 0
- 8 MCI 7 AVL 1
- 9 MCI 8 AVL 0
- 10 MCI 1 AVL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 95%, 4% end level, Aston Villa win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 71.2% |
| Man City by 2 | 13.8% |
| Man City by 1 | 9.8% |
| Draw | 4.0% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 1.0% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 0.3% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 22 (1 pen) | 4 | 3.26 | +0.74 |
 Aston Villa | 3 | 0 | 0.45 | −0.45 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 47' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 49' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.62 |
| 59' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 65' | Raheem Sterling scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 72' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% AVL |
| 2 | 13' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% AVL |
| 3 | 17' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% AVL |
| 4 | 23' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% AVL |
| 5 | 25' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +8% MCI |
| 6 | 45' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% AVL |
| 7 | 47' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +27% MCI |
| 8 | 49' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 62% chance | +4% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 99% · draw 1% · Aston Villa 0%
- Final margin
- Man City by 4
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 3.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 95% · draw 4% · Aston Villa 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 97% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Chelsea 1–1 Stoke Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Swansea 1–0 Norwich Mar 5, 2016 · replay 48% for Swansea
- Southampton 1–1 Sunderland Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–3 Bournemouth Mar 5, 2016 · replay 61% for Bournemouth
- Everton 2–3 West Ham Mar 5, 2016 · replay 32% for West Ham
- Watford 0–1 Leicester Mar 5, 2016 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Tottenham 2–2 Arsenal Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Man United Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for Liverpool