Matchday 29 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 6, 2016
Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Crystal Palace 2–1, and the replays lean Liverpool’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Crystal Palace, 2 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 1 | 1.18 |
 Liverpool | 2 | 1.80 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Liverpool lucky · −39 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 3, 2 end level, Liverpool win 5.
- 1 CRY 1 LIV 0
- 2 CRY 2 LIV 0
- 3 CRY 3 LIV 0
- 4 CRY 2 LIV 2
- 5 CRY 0 LIV 0
- 6 CRY 0 LIV 4
- 7 CRY 0 LIV 2
- 8 CRY 0 LIV 2
- 9 CRY 0 LIV 1
- 10 CRY 0 LIV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 27%, 23% end level, Liverpool win 49%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 3.9% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 8.1% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 15.3% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 22.2% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 14.9% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 12.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 15 | 1 | 1.18 | −0.18 |
 Liverpool | 18 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.80 | +0.20 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Yannick Bolasie Yala didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 47' | Joe Ledley scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 71' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 95' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Yannick Bolasie Yala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +10% LIV |
| 2 | 47' | Mile Jedinak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% LIV |
| 3 | 47' | Joe Ledley scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +28% CRY |
| 4 | 49' | Divock Okoth Origi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% CRY |
| 5 | 71' | The game turned hereRoberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +26% LIV |
| 6 | 79' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% CRY |
| 7 | 92' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% CRY |
| 8 | 95' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +11% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 21% · draw 25% · Liverpool 54%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 27% · draw 23% · Liverpool 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 29 matches, 2015-16 · Crystal Palace · Liverpool
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Chelsea 1–1 Stoke Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Swansea 1–0 Norwich Mar 5, 2016 · replay 48% for Swansea
- Southampton 1–1 Sunderland Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–3 Bournemouth Mar 5, 2016 · replay 61% for Bournemouth
- Man City 4–0 Aston Villa Mar 5, 2016 · replay 97% for Man City
- Everton 2–3 West Ham Mar 5, 2016 · replay 32% for West Ham
- Watford 0–1 Leicester Mar 5, 2016 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Tottenham 2–2 Arsenal Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Man United Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for West Brom