Matchday 29 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 5, 2016
Tottenham 2–2 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Tottenham and Arsenal drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 5 of 10, Arsenal 2, and 3 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 1.25 |
 Arsenal | 2 | 0.73 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −13 Tottenham about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 5, 3 end level, Arsenal win 2.
- 1 TOT 1 ARS 0
- 2 TOT 1 ARS 0
- 3 TOT 1 ARS 0
- 4 TOT 2 ARS 0
- 5 TOT 3 ARS 0
- 6 TOT 0 ARS 0
- 7 TOT 0 ARS 0
- 8 TOT 2 ARS 2
- 9 TOT 1 ARS 2
- 10 TOT 1 ARS 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 48%, 29% end level, Arsenal win 22%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 7.6% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 14.5% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 26.4% |
| Draw | 29.4% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 15.8% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 5.0% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 25 | 2 | 1.25 | +0.75 |
 Arsenal | 11 | 2 | 0.73 | +1.27 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Aaron Ramsey scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 59' | Toby Alderweireld scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 61' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 75' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
As low as 18% and as high as 93%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25' | Erik Lamela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% ARS |
| 2 | 38' | Aaron Ramsey scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +22% ARS |
| 3 | 56' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% ARS |
| 4 | 59' | Toby Alderweireld scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +27% TOT |
| 5 | 61' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +34% TOT |
| 6 | 75' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +36% ARS |
| 7 | 79' | Bamidele Alli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% ARS |
| 8 | 92' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 49% · draw 29% · Arsenal 22%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 48% · draw 29% · Arsenal 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Chelsea 1–1 Stoke Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Swansea 1–0 Norwich Mar 5, 2016 · replay 48% for Swansea
- Southampton 1–1 Sunderland Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–3 Bournemouth Mar 5, 2016 · replay 61% for Bournemouth
- Man City 4–0 Aston Villa Mar 5, 2016 · replay 97% for Man City
- Everton 2–3 West Ham Mar 5, 2016 · replay 32% for West Ham
- Watford 0–1 Leicester Mar 5, 2016 · replay 68% for Leicester
- West Brom 1–0 Man United Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for Liverpool