Matchday 29 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 5, 2016
Newcastle 1–3 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth beat Newcastle 3–1, and the replays lean Bournemouth’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Newcastle, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 1.1). An own goal helped Bournemouth.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 1 | 1.09 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 1.13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Bournemouth lucky · −39 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 2, 3 end level, Bournemouth win 5.
- 1 NEW 1 BOU 0
- 2 NEW 2 BOU 0
- 3 NEW 0 BOU 0
- 4 NEW 1 BOU 1
- 5 NEW 2 BOU 2
- 6 NEW 0 BOU 3
- 7 NEW 0 BOU 2
- 8 NEW 0 BOU 2
- 9 NEW 1 BOU 2
- 10 NEW 0 BOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 25%, 28% end level, Bournemouth win 47%. The line is what actually happened: Bournemouth by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 2.4% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 6.5% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 16.0% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 24.7% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 14.5% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 7.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 15 | 1 | 1.09 | −0.09 |
 Bournemouth | 16 | 2 | 1.13 | +0.87 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 69' | Joshua King scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 79' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez scored from a shot | 0.35 |
| 91' | Charlie Daniels scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Max-Alain Gradel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% NEW |
| 2 | 22' | Emmanuel Rivière didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% BOU |
| 3 | 27' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for BournemouthOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +27% BOU |
| 4 | 44' | Moussa Sissoko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% BOU |
| 5 | 66' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% BOU |
| 6 | 69' | Joshua King scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +9% BOU |
| 7 | 79' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +4% NEW |
| 8 | 87' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 35% · draw 28% · Bournemouth 37%
- Final margin
- Bournemouth by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Bournemouth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 25% · draw 28% · Bournemouth 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Bournemouth win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Chelsea 1–1 Stoke Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Swansea 1–0 Norwich Mar 5, 2016 · replay 48% for Swansea
- Southampton 1–1 Sunderland Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Man City 4–0 Aston Villa Mar 5, 2016 · replay 97% for Man City
- Everton 2–3 West Ham Mar 5, 2016 · replay 32% for West Ham
- Watford 0–1 Leicester Mar 5, 2016 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Tottenham 2–2 Arsenal Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Man United Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for Liverpool