Matchday 29 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 5, 2016
Southampton 1–1 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Southampton and Sunderland drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Southampton win 5 of 10, Sunderland 2, and 3 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 1 | 1.58 |
 Sunderland | 1 | 0.79 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −17 Southampton about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 5, 3 end level, Sunderland win 2.
- 1 SOU 1 SUN 0
- 2 SOU 2 SUN 1
- 3 SOU 2 SUN 0
- 4 SOU 3 SUN 1
- 5 SOU 3 SUN 0
- 6 SOU 1 SUN 1
- 7 SOU 2 SUN 2
- 8 SOU 1 SUN 1
- 9 SOU 1 SUN 3
- 10 SOU 0 SUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 54%, 25% end level, Sunderland win 20%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 11.9% |
| Southampton by 2 | 16.5% |
| Southampton by 1 | 26.0% |
| Draw | 25.4% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 13.6% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 5.0% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 16 | 1 | 1.58 | −0.58 |
 Sunderland | 11 | 1 | 0.79 | +0.21 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Oriol Romeu Vidal didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 84' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 92' | Virgil van Dijk scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38' | Oriol Romeu Vidal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +12% SUN |
| 2 | 68' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +6% SUN |
| 3 | 82' | Sebastian Larsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% SOU |
| 4 | 84' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +33% SUN |
| 5 | 87' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +5% SUN |
| 6 | 87' | Juan Miguel Jiménez López didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SUN |
| 7 | 88' | Rhu-endly Martina didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SUN |
| 8 | 92' | Virgil van Dijk scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +44% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 57% · draw 25% · Sunderland 18%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 54% · draw 25% · Sunderland 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 29 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Sunderland
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Chelsea 1–1 Stoke Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Swansea 1–0 Norwich Mar 5, 2016 · replay 48% for Swansea
- Newcastle 1–3 Bournemouth Mar 5, 2016 · replay 61% for Bournemouth
- Man City 4–0 Aston Villa Mar 5, 2016 · replay 97% for Man City
- Everton 2–3 West Ham Mar 5, 2016 · replay 32% for West Ham
- Watford 0–1 Leicester Mar 5, 2016 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Tottenham 2–2 Arsenal Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Man United Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for Liverpool