Matchday 31 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 19, 2016
Watford 1–2 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Stoke beat Watford 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Stoke win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Stoke made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 1 | 0.72 |
 Stoke City | 2 | 1.43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Stoke about even · −22 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 1, 2 end level, Stoke win 7.
- 1 WAT 1 STK 0
- 2 WAT 0 STK 0
- 3 WAT 0 STK 0
- 4 WAT 0 STK 4
- 5 WAT 1 STK 4
- 6 WAT 0 STK 2
- 7 WAT 1 STK 3
- 8 WAT 1 STK 2
- 9 WAT 0 STK 1
- 10 WAT 0 STK 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 11%, 21% end level, Stoke win 68%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Watford by 2 | 2.1% |
| Watford by 1 | 8.7% |
| Draw | 21.0% |
| Stoke by 1 | 25.5% |
| Stoke by 2 | 21.8% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 20.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 9 | 1 | 0.72 | +0.28 |
 Stoke | 9 | 2 | 1.43 | +0.57 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 17' | Jonathan Walters scored from a shot | 0.40 |
| 50' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 76' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 85' | Troy Deeney scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% STK |
| 2 | 13' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% WAT |
| 3 | 17' | Jonathan Walters scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +16% STK |
| 4 | 27' | José Manuel Jurado Marín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% STK |
| 5 | 28' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% STK |
| 6 | 42' | José Manuel Jurado Marín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% STK |
| 7 | 50' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +15% STK |
| 8 | 85' | Troy Deeney scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +3% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 17% · draw 24% · Stoke 59%
- Final margin
- Stoke by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 11% · draw 21% · Stoke 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 78% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 31 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Stoke
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- West Brom 0–1 Norwich Mar 19, 2016 · replay 59% for Norwich
- Chelsea 2–2 West Ham Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Everton 0–2 Arsenal Mar 19, 2016 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Leicester Mar 19, 2016 · replay 72% for Leicester
- Swansea 1–0 Aston Villa Mar 19, 2016 · replay 39% for Swansea
- Tottenham 3–0 Bournemouth Mar 20, 2016 · replay 90% for Tottenham
- Southampton 3–2 Liverpool Mar 20, 2016 · replay 38% for Southampton
- Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland Mar 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Man City 0–1 Man United Mar 20, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United