Matchday 31 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 19, 2016
West Brom 0–1 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Norwich beat West Brom 1–0, and the replays lean Norwich’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for West Brom, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.5 expected goals to 0.7).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 0 | 0.46 |
 Norwich City | 1 | 0.70 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Norwich lucky · −41 West Brom
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 2, 4 end level, Norwich win 4.
- 1 WBA 1 NOR 0
- 2 WBA 2 NOR 1
- 3 WBA 1 NOR 1
- 4 WBA 0 NOR 0
- 5 WBA 0 NOR 0
- 6 WBA 0 NOR 0
- 7 WBA 0 NOR 2
- 8 WBA 0 NOR 2
- 9 WBA 0 NOR 1
- 10 WBA 0 NOR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 21%, 41% end level, Norwich win 38%. The line is what actually happened: Norwich by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 0.7% |
| West Brom by 2 | 4.3% |
| West Brom by 1 | 16.1% |
| Draw | 40.7% |
| Norwich by 1 | 24.9% |
| Norwich by 2 | 10.3% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 10 | 0 | 0.46 | −0.46 |
 Norwich | 7 | 1 | 0.70 | +0.30 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 49' | Robert Brady scored from a shot | 0.36 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Robert Brady didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +2% WBA |
| 2 | 9' | Russell Martin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% WBA |
| 3 | 14' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% NOR |
| 4 | 28' | Patrick Bamford didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% WBA |
| 5 | 42' | Stéphane Sessègnon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% NOR |
| 6 | 49' | The game turned hereRobert Brady scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +21% NOR |
| 7 | 58' | Patrick Bamford didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% WBA |
| 8 | 73' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% NOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 21% · draw 40% · Norwich 39%
- Final margin
- Norwich by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Norwich by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 21% · draw 41% · Norwich 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Norwich win 59% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 31 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Norwich
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- Chelsea 2–2 West Ham Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Watford 1–2 Stoke Mar 19, 2016 · replay 78% for Stoke
- Everton 0–2 Arsenal Mar 19, 2016 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Leicester Mar 19, 2016 · replay 72% for Leicester
- Swansea 1–0 Aston Villa Mar 19, 2016 · replay 39% for Swansea
- Tottenham 3–0 Bournemouth Mar 20, 2016 · replay 90% for Tottenham
- Southampton 3–2 Liverpool Mar 20, 2016 · replay 38% for Southampton
- Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland Mar 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Man City 0–1 Man United Mar 20, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United