Matchday 31 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 19, 2016
Everton 0–2 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Everton 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.5.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Arsenal about even · −13 Everton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 0, 2 end level, Arsenal win 8.
- 1 EVE 1 ARS 1
- 2 EVE 0 ARS 0
- 3 EVE 0 ARS 5
- 4 EVE 0 ARS 3
- 5 EVE 0 ARS 3
- 6 EVE 1 ARS 3
- 7 EVE 0 ARS 2
- 8 EVE 0 ARS 2
- 9 EVE 1 ARS 2
- 10 EVE 0 ARS 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 5%, 16% end level, Arsenal win 79%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Everton by 2 | 0.5% |
| Everton by 1 | 4.1% |
| Draw | 16.4% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 24.3% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 25.1% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 29.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 8 | 0 | 0.46 | −0.46 |
 Arsenal | 11 | 2 | 1.83 | +0.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck scored from a shot | 0.90 |
| 41' | Alex Iwobi scored from a shot | 0.24 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Gabriel Armando de Abreu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% EVE |
| 2 | 6' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck scored from a shotFinishing · 90% chance | +3% ARS |
| 3 | 7' | Alex Iwobi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% EVE |
| 4 | 20' | Mesut Özil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% EVE |
| 5 | 22' | Muhamed Bešić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% ARS |
| 6 | 37' | Héctor Bellerín Moruno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +3% EVE |
| 7 | 41' | Alex Iwobi scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +13% ARS |
| 8 | 68' | Phil Jagielka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 1% · draw 5% · Arsenal 94%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 5% · draw 16% · Arsenal 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 87% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- West Brom 0–1 Norwich Mar 19, 2016 · replay 59% for Norwich
- Chelsea 2–2 West Ham Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Watford 1–2 Stoke Mar 19, 2016 · replay 78% for Stoke
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Leicester Mar 19, 2016 · replay 72% for Leicester
- Swansea 1–0 Aston Villa Mar 19, 2016 · replay 39% for Swansea
- Tottenham 3–0 Bournemouth Mar 20, 2016 · replay 90% for Tottenham
- Southampton 3–2 Liverpool Mar 20, 2016 · replay 38% for Southampton
- Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland Mar 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Man City 0–1 Man United Mar 20, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United