Matchday 31 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 20, 2016
Tottenham 3–0 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Bournemouth 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 1.53 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 0 | 0.25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Tottenham about even · −10 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 8, 1 ends level, Bournemouth win 1.
- 1 TOT 1 BOU 0
- 2 TOT 1 BOU 0
- 3 TOT 1 BOU 0
- 4 TOT 2 BOU 0
- 5 TOT 2 BOU 0
- 6 TOT 3 BOU 0
- 7 TOT 3 BOU 0
- 8 TOT 5 BOU 0
- 9 TOT 0 BOU 0
- 10 TOT 0 BOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 83%, 15% end level, Bournemouth win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 33.9% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 24.4% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 24.7% |
| Draw | 14.5% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 2.4% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 0.1% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 18 | 3 | 1.53 | +1.47 |
 Bournemouth | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | −0.25 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 0' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 15' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 51' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a shot | 0.62 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +19% TOT |
| 2 | 10' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +1% BOU |
| 3 | 13' | Kyle Walker didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +0% BOU |
| 4 | 15' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +11% TOT |
| 5 | 18' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +0% BOU |
| 6 | 40' | Steve Cook didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% TOT |
| 7 | 51' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a shotFinishing · 62% chance | +1% TOT |
| 8 | 67' | Lewis Grabban didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +0% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 95% · draw 4% · Bournemouth 0%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 83% · draw 15% · Bournemouth 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 90% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- West Brom 0–1 Norwich Mar 19, 2016 · replay 59% for Norwich
- Chelsea 2–2 West Ham Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Watford 1–2 Stoke Mar 19, 2016 · replay 78% for Stoke
- Everton 0–2 Arsenal Mar 19, 2016 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Leicester Mar 19, 2016 · replay 72% for Leicester
- Swansea 1–0 Aston Villa Mar 19, 2016 · replay 39% for Swansea
- Southampton 3–2 Liverpool Mar 20, 2016 · replay 38% for Southampton
- Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland Mar 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Man City 0–1 Man United Mar 20, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United