Matchday 31 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 19, 2016
Swansea 1–0 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Swansea beat Aston Villa 1–0, but the replays lean toward Aston Villa: 5 wins in 10 to Swansea’s 2, 3 end level. Aston Villa made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 1 | 0.59 |
 Aston Villa | 0 | 1.07 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 Swansea very lucky · −61 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 2, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 5.
- 1 SWA 2 AVL 1
- 2 SWA 2 AVL 0
- 3 SWA 1 AVL 1
- 4 SWA 0 AVL 0
- 5 SWA 0 AVL 0
- 6 SWA 0 AVL 3
- 7 SWA 0 AVL 2
- 8 SWA 0 AVL 1
- 9 SWA 0 AVL 1
- 10 SWA 0 AVL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 23%, 32% end level, Aston Villa win 45%. The line is what actually happened: Swansea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 1.2% |
| Swansea by 2 | 5.3% |
| Swansea by 1 | 17.0% |
| Draw | 32.0% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 25.2% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 13.4% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 6.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 10 | 1 | 0.59 | +0.41 |
 Aston Villa | 12 | 0 | 1.07 | −1.07 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 52' | Federico Fernández scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% SWA |
| 2 | 19' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% SWA |
| 3 | 21' | Ciaran Clark didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% SWA |
| 4 | 32' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SWA |
| 5 | 34' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% AVL |
| 6 | 52' | Federico Fernández scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +26% SWA |
| 7 | 72' | Joleon Lescott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SWA |
| 8 | 89' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 21% · draw 32% · Aston Villa 47%
- Final margin
- Swansea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Aston Villa by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 23% · draw 32% · Aston Villa 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Swansea win 39% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 31 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Aston Villa
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- West Brom 0–1 Norwich Mar 19, 2016 · replay 59% for Norwich
- Chelsea 2–2 West Ham Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Watford 1–2 Stoke Mar 19, 2016 · replay 78% for Stoke
- Everton 0–2 Arsenal Mar 19, 2016 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Leicester Mar 19, 2016 · replay 72% for Leicester
- Tottenham 3–0 Bournemouth Mar 20, 2016 · replay 90% for Tottenham
- Southampton 3–2 Liverpool Mar 20, 2016 · replay 38% for Southampton
- Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland Mar 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Man City 0–1 Man United Mar 20, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United