Matchday 31 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 19, 2016
Crystal Palace 0–1 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Crystal Palace 1–0, and the replays lean Leicester’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Crystal Palace, 3 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 0 | 0.61 |
 Leicester City | 1 | 1.32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Leicester lucky · −28 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 1, 3 end level, Leicester win 6.
- 1 CRY 2 LEI 1
- 2 CRY 2 LEI 2
- 3 CRY 0 LEI 0
- 4 CRY 0 LEI 0
- 5 CRY 0 LEI 3
- 6 CRY 0 LEI 2
- 7 CRY 0 LEI 2
- 8 CRY 0 LEI 1
- 9 CRY 0 LEI 1
- 10 CRY 0 LEI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 14%, 27% end level, Leicester win 59%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 2.6% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 10.8% |
| Draw | 26.9% |
| Leicester by 1 | 27.9% |
| Leicester by 2 | 18.4% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 12.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 13 | 0 | 0.61 | −0.61 |
 Leicester | 8 | 1 | 1.32 | −0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 17' | Riyad Mahrez didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 33' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shot | 0.39 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Riyad Mahrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +11% CRY |
| 2 | 29' | Wilfried Zaha didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% LEI |
| 3 | 33' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +18% LEI |
| 4 | 55' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +3% CRY |
| 5 | 64' | Mile Jedinak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% LEI |
| 6 | 81' | Wilfried Zaha didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% LEI |
| 7 | 83' | Yohan Cabaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% LEI |
| 8 | 91' | Damien Delaney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +4% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 15% · draw 28% · Leicester 57%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 14% · draw 27% · Leicester 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 31 matches, 2015-16 · Crystal Palace · Leicester
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- West Brom 0–1 Norwich Mar 19, 2016 · replay 59% for Norwich
- Chelsea 2–2 West Ham Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Watford 1–2 Stoke Mar 19, 2016 · replay 78% for Stoke
- Everton 0–2 Arsenal Mar 19, 2016 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Swansea 1–0 Aston Villa Mar 19, 2016 · replay 39% for Swansea
- Tottenham 3–0 Bournemouth Mar 20, 2016 · replay 90% for Tottenham
- Southampton 3–2 Liverpool Mar 20, 2016 · replay 38% for Southampton
- Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland Mar 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Man City 0–1 Man United Mar 20, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United