Matchday 31 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 20, 2016
Southampton 3–2 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Southampton beat Liverpool 3–2, but the replays lean toward Liverpool: 5 wins in 10 to Southampton’s 3, 2 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 3 | 1.93 |
 Liverpool | 2 | 1.51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Southampton very lucky · −62 Liverpool
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 3, 2 end level, Liverpool win 5.
- 1 SOU 1 LIV 0
- 2 SOU 2 LIV 1
- 3 SOU 3 LIV 1
- 4 SOU 2 LIV 2
- 5 SOU 1 LIV 1
- 6 SOU 0 LIV 3
- 7 SOU 1 LIV 3
- 8 SOU 1 LIV 3
- 9 SOU 0 LIV 1
- 10 SOU 0 LIV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 28%, 21% end level, Liverpool win 51%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 4.3% |
| Southampton by 2 | 8.5% |
| Southampton by 1 | 15.1% |
| Draw | 21.1% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 21.0% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 15.2% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 14.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 16 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.93 | +1.07 |
 Liverpool | 18 | 2 | 1.51 | +0.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 21' | Daniel Andre Sturridge scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 25' | Joe Allen didn’t score from a shot | 0.51 |
| 49' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 63' | Sadio Mané scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 82' | Graziano Pellè scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 85' | Sadio Mané scored from a shot | 0.22 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Philippe Coutinho Correia scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +26% LIV |
| 2 | 21' | Daniel Andre Sturridge scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +17% LIV |
| 3 | 25' | Joe Allen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +4% SOU |
| 4 | 36' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +4% LIV |
| 5 | 49' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +13% LIV |
| 6 | 63' | Sadio Mané scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +12% SOU |
| 7 | 82' | The game turned hereGraziano Pellè scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +43% SOU |
| 8 | 85' | Sadio Mané scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +36% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 49% · draw 24% · Liverpool 27%
- Final margin
- Southampton by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Southampton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 28% · draw 21% · Liverpool 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 38% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 31 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Liverpool
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- West Brom 0–1 Norwich Mar 19, 2016 · replay 59% for Norwich
- Chelsea 2–2 West Ham Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Watford 1–2 Stoke Mar 19, 2016 · replay 78% for Stoke
- Everton 0–2 Arsenal Mar 19, 2016 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Leicester Mar 19, 2016 · replay 72% for Leicester
- Swansea 1–0 Aston Villa Mar 19, 2016 · replay 39% for Swansea
- Tottenham 3–0 Bournemouth Mar 20, 2016 · replay 90% for Tottenham
- Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland Mar 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Man City 0–1 Man United Mar 20, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United