Matchday 31 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 20, 2016
Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Newcastle and Sunderland drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Newcastle win 5 of 10, Sunderland 2, and 3 end level. Newcastle made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 1 | 1.49 |
 Sunderland | 1 | 0.60 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −19 Newcastle about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 5, 3 end level, Sunderland win 2.
- 1 NEW 1 SUN 0
- 2 NEW 1 SUN 0
- 3 NEW 2 SUN 0
- 4 NEW 2 SUN 0
- 5 NEW 4 SUN 1
- 6 NEW 1 SUN 1
- 7 NEW 1 SUN 1
- 8 NEW 0 SUN 0
- 9 NEW 0 SUN 2
- 10 NEW 2 SUN 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 55%, 27% end level, Sunderland win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 9.9% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 16.4% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 28.5% |
| Draw | 27.3% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 12.9% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 4.0% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 17 | 1 | 1.49 | −0.49 |
 Sunderland | 14 | 1 | 0.60 | +0.40 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 43' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 82' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shot | 0.13 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
As low as 6% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +5% SUN |
| 2 | 12' | Moussa Sissoko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% SUN |
| 3 | 43' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +29% SUN |
| 4 | 47' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% SUN |
| 5 | 47' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% SUN |
| 6 | 52' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SUN |
| 7 | 74' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% SUN |
| 8 | 82' | Aleksandar Mitrović scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +40% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 60% · draw 25% · Sunderland 15%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Newcastle by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 55% · draw 27% · Sunderland 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- West Brom 0–1 Norwich Mar 19, 2016 · replay 59% for Norwich
- Chelsea 2–2 West Ham Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Watford 1–2 Stoke Mar 19, 2016 · replay 78% for Stoke
- Everton 0–2 Arsenal Mar 19, 2016 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Leicester Mar 19, 2016 · replay 72% for Leicester
- Swansea 1–0 Aston Villa Mar 19, 2016 · replay 39% for Swansea
- Tottenham 3–0 Bournemouth Mar 20, 2016 · replay 90% for Tottenham
- Southampton 3–2 Liverpool Mar 20, 2016 · replay 38% for Southampton
- Man City 0–1 Man United Mar 20, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United