Matchday 31 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 19, 2016
Chelsea 2–2 West Ham: who deserved to win?
Chelsea and West Ham drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Chelsea win 6 of 10, West Ham 2, and 2 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 2 | 2.41 |
 West Ham United | 2 | 0.89 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −22 Chelsea about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 6, 2 end level, West Ham win 2.
- 1 CHE 2 WHU 1
- 2 CHE 2 WHU 1
- 3 CHE 3 WHU 1
- 4 CHE 2 WHU 0
- 5 CHE 3 WHU 0
- 6 CHE 3 WHU 0
- 7 CHE 1 WHU 1
- 8 CHE 0 WHU 0
- 9 CHE 0 WHU 2
- 10 CHE 2 WHU 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 62%, 21% end level, West Ham win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 20.2% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 17.8% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 23.9% |
| Draw | 21.0% |
| West Ham by 1 | 11.1% |
| West Ham by 2 | 4.2% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 1.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 22 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.41 | −0.41 |
 West Ham | 13 | 2 | 0.89 | +1.11 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Manuel Lanzini scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 47' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler scored from a free kick | 0.07 |
| 60' | Andy Carroll scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 67' | John Michael Nchekwube Obinna didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 88' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
As low as 1% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Manuel Lanzini scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +26% WHU |
| 2 | 47' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler scored from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +31% CHE |
| 3 | 49' | Oscar dos Santos Emboaba Júnior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% WHU |
| 4 | 60' | Andy Carroll scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +28% WHU |
| 5 | 67' | John Michael Nchekwube Obinna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +13% WHU |
| 6 | 73' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% WHU |
| 7 | 88' | Francesc Fàbregas i Soler scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +11% CHE |
| 8 | 94' | Ruben Loftus-Cheek didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 75% · draw 16% · West Ham 9%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 62% · draw 21% · West Ham 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- West Brom 0–1 Norwich Mar 19, 2016 · replay 59% for Norwich
- Watford 1–2 Stoke Mar 19, 2016 · replay 78% for Stoke
- Everton 0–2 Arsenal Mar 19, 2016 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Leicester Mar 19, 2016 · replay 72% for Leicester
- Swansea 1–0 Aston Villa Mar 19, 2016 · replay 39% for Swansea
- Tottenham 3–0 Bournemouth Mar 20, 2016 · replay 90% for Tottenham
- Southampton 3–2 Liverpool Mar 20, 2016 · replay 38% for Southampton
- Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland Mar 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Man City 0–1 Man United Mar 20, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United