Matchday 31 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 20, 2016
Man City 0–1 Man United: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Man City 1–0, but the replays lean toward Man City: 6 wins in 10 to Man United’s 2, 2 end level. Man City made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 0 | 1.97 |
 Manchester United | 1 | 0.52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +74 Man United very lucky · −74 Man City
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 6, 2 end level, Man United win 2.
- 1 MCI 1 MUN 0
- 2 MCI 1 MUN 0
- 3 MCI 2 MUN 1
- 4 MCI 4 MUN 2
- 5 MCI 4 MUN 1
- 6 MCI 4 MUN 0
- 7 MCI 0 MUN 0
- 8 MCI 0 MUN 0
- 9 MCI 0 MUN 1
- 10 MCI 0 MUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 62%, 24% end level, Man United win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 15.6% |
| Man City by 2 | 20.0% |
| Man City by 1 | 26.8% |
| Draw | 23.7% |
| Man United by 1 | 10.3% |
| Man United by 2 | 3.0% |
| Man United by 3+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 25 | 0 | 1.97 | −1.97 |
 Man United | 5 | 1 | 0.52 | +0.48 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Marcus Rashford scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 44' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Marcus Rashford scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +19% MUN |
| 2 | 21' | Martín Gastón Demichelis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% MUN |
| 3 | 44' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +12% MUN |
| 4 | 63' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +10% MUN |
| 5 | 65' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% MUN |
| 6 | 71' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% MUN |
| 7 | 87' | Fernando Luiz Rosa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% MUN |
| 8 | 90' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +7% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 71% · draw 20% · Man United 9%
- Final margin
- Man United by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 62% · draw 24% · Man United 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 26% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 31, 2015-16
- West Brom 0–1 Norwich Mar 19, 2016 · replay 59% for Norwich
- Chelsea 2–2 West Ham Mar 19, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Watford 1–2 Stoke Mar 19, 2016 · replay 78% for Stoke
- Everton 0–2 Arsenal Mar 19, 2016 · replay 87% for Arsenal
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Leicester Mar 19, 2016 · replay 72% for Leicester
- Swansea 1–0 Aston Villa Mar 19, 2016 · replay 39% for Swansea
- Tottenham 3–0 Bournemouth Mar 20, 2016 · replay 90% for Tottenham
- Southampton 3–2 Liverpool Mar 20, 2016 · replay 38% for Southampton
- Newcastle 1–1 Sunderland Mar 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws