Matchday 34 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 16, 2016
Newcastle 3–0 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Newcastle beat Swansea 3–0, and the replays lean Newcastle’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Swansea, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 1.1).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 3 | 1.05 |
 Swansea City | 0 | 1.11 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Newcastle lucky · −40 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 5, 3 end level, Swansea win 2.
- 1 NEW 1 SWA 0
- 2 NEW 2 SWA 1
- 3 NEW 3 SWA 1
- 4 NEW 2 SWA 0
- 5 NEW 3 SWA 0
- 6 NEW 2 SWA 2
- 7 NEW 1 SWA 1
- 8 NEW 2 SWA 2
- 9 NEW 0 SWA 2
- 10 NEW 0 SWA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 46%, 28% end level, Swansea win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Newcastle by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 7.4% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 13.1% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 25.2% |
| Draw | 27.8% |
| Swansea by 1 | 16.9% |
| Swansea by 2 | 7.5% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 2.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 12 | 3 | 1.05 | +1.95 |
 Swansea | 12 | 0 | 1.11 | −1.11 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 40' | Jamaal Lascelles scored from a shot | 0.41 |
| 81' | Moussa Sissoko scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 88' | Andros Townsend scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40' | Jamaal Lascelles scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +16% NEW |
| 2 | 51' | Ashley Williams didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% NEW |
| 3 | 55' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% NEW |
| 4 | 56' | Alberto Paloschi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% NEW |
| 5 | 70' | Ashley Williams didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% NEW |
| 6 | 74' | Jefferson Antonio Montero Vite didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +11% NEW |
| 7 | 76' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +7% NEW |
| 8 | 81' | Moussa Sissoko scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 64% · draw 22% · Swansea 14%
- Final margin
- Newcastle by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.3 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Newcastle by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 46% · draw 28% · Swansea 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Newcastle win 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 34 matches, 2015-16 · Newcastle · Swansea
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
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- Man United 1–0 Aston Villa Apr 16, 2016 · replay 80% for Man United
- Chelsea 0–3 Man City Apr 16, 2016 · replay 87% for Man City
- Arsenal 1–1 Crystal Palace Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Bournemouth 1–2 Liverpool Apr 17, 2016 · replay 67% for Liverpool
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