Matchday 34 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 16, 2016
West Brom 0–1 Watford: who deserved to win?
Watford beat West Brom 1–0, a result the replays rarely give: West Brom win 7 of 10, Watford only 1, 2 end level. West Brom made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 0 | 2.46 |
 Watford | 1 | 0.47 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +81 Watford very lucky · −81 West Brom
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 7, 2 end level, Watford win 1.
- 1 WBA 4 WAT 3
- 2 WBA 3 WAT 2
- 3 WBA 2 WAT 0
- 4 WBA 2 WAT 0
- 5 WBA 2 WAT 0
- 6 WBA 4 WAT 1
- 7 WBA 4 WAT 0
- 8 WBA 1 WAT 1
- 9 WBA 1 WAT 1
- 10 WBA 0 WAT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 72%, 18% end level, Watford win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Watford by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 23.8% |
| West Brom by 2 | 22.2% |
| West Brom by 1 | 26.3% |
| Draw | 18.4% |
| Watford by 1 | 7.0% |
| Watford by 2 | 2.0% |
| Watford by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 17 (2 pen) | 0 | 2.46 | −2.46 |
 Watford | 11 | 1 | 0.47 | +0.53 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Ben Watson scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 66' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 86' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26' | The game turned hereBen Watson scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +27% WAT |
| 2 | 30' | James McClean didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% WAT |
| 3 | 39' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% WAT |
| 4 | 43' | Stéphane Sessègnon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% WAT |
| 5 | 51' | Gareth McAuley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% WAT |
| 6 | 66' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +30% WAT |
| 7 | 66' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% WAT |
| 8 | 86' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +37% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 87% · draw 10% · Watford 4%
- Final margin
- Watford by 1
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 72% · draw 18% · Watford 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Watford win 19% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 34 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Watford
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
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- Everton 1–1 Southampton Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
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- Man United 1–0 Aston Villa Apr 16, 2016 · replay 80% for Man United
- Chelsea 0–3 Man City Apr 16, 2016 · replay 87% for Man City
- Arsenal 1–1 Crystal Palace Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Bournemouth 1–2 Liverpool Apr 17, 2016 · replay 67% for Liverpool
- Leicester 2–2 West Ham Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Stoke 0–4 Tottenham Apr 18, 2016 · replay 97% for Tottenham