Matchday 34 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 16, 2016
Man United 1–0 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Aston Villa 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man United win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Man United made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 1 | 1.35 |
 Aston Villa | 0 | 0.35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Man United about even · −20 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 7, 2 end level, Aston Villa win 1.
- 1 MUN 1 AVL 0
- 2 MUN 1 AVL 0
- 3 MUN 1 AVL 0
- 4 MUN 3 AVL 1
- 5 MUN 2 AVL 0
- 6 MUN 3 AVL 0
- 7 MUN 4 AVL 0
- 8 MUN 0 AVL 0
- 9 MUN 1 AVL 1
- 10 MUN 0 AVL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 68%, 24% end level, Aston Villa win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 15.4% |
| Man United by 2 | 21.2% |
| Man United by 1 | 31.2% |
| Draw | 24.2% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 6.5% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 1.4% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 14 | 1 | 1.35 | −0.35 |
 Aston Villa | 7 | 0 | 0.35 | −0.35 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Marcus Rashford scored from a shot | 0.22 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% AVL |
| 2 | 22' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% AVL |
| 3 | 31' | Marcus Rashford scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +20% MUN |
| 4 | 44' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% MUN |
| 5 | 47' | Marcus Rashford didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +3% AVL |
| 6 | 82' | Leandro Bacuna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% MUN |
| 7 | 83' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% MUN |
| 8 | 89' | Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 65% · draw 26% · Aston Villa 9%
- Final margin
- Man United by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 68% · draw 24% · Aston Villa 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Newcastle 3–0 Swansea Apr 16, 2016 · replay 60% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Southampton Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- West Brom 0–1 Watford Apr 16, 2016 · replay 19% for Watford
- Norwich 0–3 Sunderland Apr 16, 2016 · replay 72% for Sunderland
- Chelsea 0–3 Man City Apr 16, 2016 · replay 87% for Man City
- Arsenal 1–1 Crystal Palace Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Bournemouth 1–2 Liverpool Apr 17, 2016 · replay 67% for Liverpool
- Leicester 2–2 West Ham Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Stoke 0–4 Tottenham Apr 18, 2016 · replay 97% for Tottenham