Matchday 34 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 17, 2016
Bournemouth 1–2 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Bournemouth 2–1, and the replays lean Liverpool’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Bournemouth, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.6 expected goals to 1.8).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 1.61 |
 Liverpool | 2 | 1.82 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Liverpool lucky · −33 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 2, 2 end level, Liverpool win 6.
- 1 BOU 1 LIV 0
- 2 BOU 2 LIV 0
- 3 BOU 1 LIV 1
- 4 BOU 2 LIV 2
- 5 BOU 2 LIV 6
- 6 BOU 1 LIV 4
- 7 BOU 0 LIV 2
- 8 BOU 1 LIV 3
- 9 BOU 2 LIV 3
- 10 BOU 3 LIV 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 22%, 22% end level, Liverpool win 56%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 2.4% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 6.6% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 12.6% |
| Draw | 22.0% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 21.7% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 17.4% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 17.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 19 | 1 | 1.61 | −0.61 |
 Liverpool | 19 | 2 | 1.82 | +0.18 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 40' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.55 |
| 46' | Daniel Andre Sturridge scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 92' | Joshua King scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Daniel Andre Sturridge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BOU |
| 2 | 5' | Steve Cook didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +6% LIV |
| 3 | 19' | Tommy Elphick didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% LIV |
| 4 | 23' | Connor Steven Randall didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BOU |
| 5 | 40' | Daniel Andre Sturridge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% BOU |
| 6 | 40' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +14% LIV |
| 7 | 46' | Daniel Andre Sturridge scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +15% LIV |
| 8 | 93' | Steve Cook didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 33% · draw 22% · Liverpool 44%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 22% · draw 22% · Liverpool 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Newcastle 3–0 Swansea Apr 16, 2016 · replay 60% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Southampton Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- West Brom 0–1 Watford Apr 16, 2016 · replay 19% for Watford
- Norwich 0–3 Sunderland Apr 16, 2016 · replay 72% for Sunderland
- Man United 1–0 Aston Villa Apr 16, 2016 · replay 80% for Man United
- Chelsea 0–3 Man City Apr 16, 2016 · replay 87% for Man City
- Arsenal 1–1 Crystal Palace Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Leicester 2–2 West Ham Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Stoke 0–4 Tottenham Apr 18, 2016 · replay 97% for Tottenham