Matchday 34 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 16, 2016
Everton 1–1 Southampton: who deserved to win?
Everton and Southampton drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Everton win 1 of 10, Southampton 6, and 3 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 1 | 0.32 |
 Southampton | 1 | 1.45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Everton lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 1, 3 end level, Southampton win 6.
- 1 EVE 1 SOU 0
- 2 EVE 1 SOU 1
- 3 EVE 1 SOU 1
- 4 EVE 0 SOU 0
- 5 EVE 0 SOU 3
- 6 EVE 0 SOU 2
- 7 EVE 0 SOU 2
- 8 EVE 0 SOU 1
- 9 EVE 0 SOU 1
- 10 EVE 0 SOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 9%, 26% end level, Southampton win 65%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Everton by 2 | 1.2% |
| Everton by 1 | 7.5% |
| Draw | 25.9% |
| Southampton by 1 | 30.6% |
| Southampton by 2 | 20.9% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 13.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 7 | 1 | 0.32 | +0.68 |
 Southampton | 18 | 1 | 1.45 | −0.45 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 67' | José Ramiro Funes Mori scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 75' | Sadio Mané scored from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% EVE |
| 2 | 49' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% EVE |
| 3 | 62' | Graziano Pellè didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +10% EVE |
| 4 | 67' | José Ramiro Funes Mori scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +35% EVE |
| 5 | 75' | Sadio Mané scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +28% SOU |
| 6 | 78' | Jordy Clasie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% EVE |
| 7 | 78' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% EVE |
| 8 | 84' | Kevin Mirallas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 8% · draw 24% · Southampton 68%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 9% · draw 26% · Southampton 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 34 matches, 2015-16 · Everton · Southampton
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