Matchday 34 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 16, 2016
Chelsea 0–3 Man City: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Chelsea 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man City win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Man City made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 0 | 0.99 |
 Manchester City | 3 | 2.33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Man City about even · −13 Chelsea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 1, 1 ends level, Man City win 8.
- 1 CHE 1 MCI 0
- 2 CHE 1 MCI 1
- 3 CHE 1 MCI 6
- 4 CHE 1 MCI 5
- 5 CHE 0 MCI 3
- 6 CHE 0 MCI 3
- 7 CHE 1 MCI 3
- 8 CHE 0 MCI 2
- 9 CHE 2 MCI 3
- 10 CHE 1 MCI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 8%, 11% end level, Man City win 81%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 1.8% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 5.6% |
| Draw | 11.4% |
| Man City by 1 | 18.9% |
| Man City by 2 | 20.8% |
| Man City by 3+ | 41.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 12 | 0 | 0.99 | −0.99 |
 Man City | 12 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.33 | +0.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Samir Nasri didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 32' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 47' | Ruben Loftus-Cheek didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 53' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 79' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% CHE |
| 2 | 22' | Kevin De Bruyne didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% CHE |
| 3 | 26' | Samir Nasri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +11% CHE |
| 4 | 32' | The game turned hereSergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +28% MCI |
| 5 | 45' | Willian Borges da Silva didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MCI |
| 6 | 47' | Ruben Loftus-Cheek didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +13% MCI |
| 7 | 49' | Ruben Loftus-Cheek didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% MCI |
| 8 | 53' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +12% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 3% · draw 8% · Man City 90%
- Final margin
- Man City by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 8% · draw 11% · Man City 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 87% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Newcastle 3–0 Swansea Apr 16, 2016 · replay 60% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Southampton Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- West Brom 0–1 Watford Apr 16, 2016 · replay 19% for Watford
- Norwich 0–3 Sunderland Apr 16, 2016 · replay 72% for Sunderland
- Man United 1–0 Aston Villa Apr 16, 2016 · replay 80% for Man United
- Arsenal 1–1 Crystal Palace Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Bournemouth 1–2 Liverpool Apr 17, 2016 · replay 67% for Liverpool
- Leicester 2–2 West Ham Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Stoke 0–4 Tottenham Apr 18, 2016 · replay 97% for Tottenham