Matchday 34 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 18, 2016
Stoke 0–4 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Stoke 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 10 of 10. Tottenham made the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 0 | 0.71 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | 3.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Tottenham about even · −3 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 0, 0 end level, Tottenham win 10.
- 1 STK 0 TOT 8
- 2 STK 1 TOT 8
- 3 STK 0 TOT 6
- 4 STK 0 TOT 5
- 5 STK 0 TOT 4
- 6 STK 0 TOT 4
- 7 STK 0 TOT 3
- 8 STK 0 TOT 3
- 9 STK 2 TOT 4
- 10 STK 1 TOT 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 1%, 3% end level, Tottenham win 96%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Stoke by 2 | 0.2% |
| Stoke by 1 | 0.9% |
| Draw | 3.2% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 6.9% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 11.9% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 76.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 13 | 0 | 0.71 | −0.71 |
 Tottenham | 22 | 4 | 3.49 | +0.51 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 41' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
| 66' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shot | 0.40 |
| 69' | Bamidele Alli didn’t score from a shot | 0.76 |
| 70' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.87 |
| 81' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% STK |
| 2 | 8' | The game turned hereHarry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +25% TOT |
| 3 | 26' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% TOT |
| 4 | 28' | Bojan Krkíc Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% TOT |
| 5 | 41' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +8% STK |
| 6 | 41' | Bamidele Alli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% STK |
| 7 | 66' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% TOT |
| 8 | 66' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +7% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 0% · draw 1% · Tottenham 99%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 4
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 3.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 1% · draw 3% · Tottenham 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 97% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 34 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Tottenham
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Newcastle 3–0 Swansea Apr 16, 2016 · replay 60% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Southampton Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- West Brom 0–1 Watford Apr 16, 2016 · replay 19% for Watford
- Norwich 0–3 Sunderland Apr 16, 2016 · replay 72% for Sunderland
- Man United 1–0 Aston Villa Apr 16, 2016 · replay 80% for Man United
- Chelsea 0–3 Man City Apr 16, 2016 · replay 87% for Man City
- Arsenal 1–1 Crystal Palace Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Bournemouth 1–2 Liverpool Apr 17, 2016 · replay 67% for Liverpool
- Leicester 2–2 West Ham Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws