Matchday 34 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 17, 2016
Arsenal 1–1 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Arsenal and Crystal Palace drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 8 of 10, Crystal Palace 0, and 2 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 1 | 1.74 |
 Crystal Palace | 1 | 0.39 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −34 Arsenal unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 8, 2 end level, Crystal Palace win 0.
- 1 ARS 2 CRY 1
- 2 ARS 1 CRY 0
- 3 ARS 2 CRY 1
- 4 ARS 3 CRY 1
- 5 ARS 3 CRY 1
- 6 ARS 3 CRY 0
- 7 ARS 3 CRY 0
- 8 ARS 4 CRY 0
- 9 ARS 1 CRY 1
- 10 ARS 1 CRY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 75%, 18% end level, Crystal Palace win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 26.0% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 22.9% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 26.1% |
| Draw | 17.7% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 6.0% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 1.1% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 21 | 1 | 1.74 | −0.74 |
 Crystal Palace | 7 | 1 | 0.39 | +0.61 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 81' | Yannick Bolasie Yala scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42' | Mesut Özil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +8% CRY |
| 2 | 44' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% ARS |
| 3 | 45' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +26% ARS |
| 4 | 50' | Alex Iwobi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +3% CRY |
| 5 | 64' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +2% CRY |
| 6 | 75' | Bakary Sako didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% ARS |
| 7 | 81' | Yannick Bolasie Yala scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +42% CRY |
| 8 | 86' | Gabriel Armando de Abreu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% CRY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 72% · draw 21% · Crystal Palace 8%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Crystal Palace
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 75% · draw 18% · Crystal Palace 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Newcastle 3–0 Swansea Apr 16, 2016 · replay 60% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Southampton Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- West Brom 0–1 Watford Apr 16, 2016 · replay 19% for Watford
- Norwich 0–3 Sunderland Apr 16, 2016 · replay 72% for Sunderland
- Man United 1–0 Aston Villa Apr 16, 2016 · replay 80% for Man United
- Chelsea 0–3 Man City Apr 16, 2016 · replay 87% for Man City
- Bournemouth 1–2 Liverpool Apr 17, 2016 · replay 67% for Liverpool
- Leicester 2–2 West Ham Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Stoke 0–4 Tottenham Apr 18, 2016 · replay 97% for Tottenham