Matchday 34 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 17, 2016
Leicester 2–2 West Ham: who deserved to win?
Leicester and West Ham drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Leicester win 3 of 10, West Ham 5, and 2 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 2 | 1.30 |
 West Ham United | 2 | 1.80 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Leicester about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 3, 2 end level, West Ham win 5.
- 1 LEI 1 WHU 0
- 2 LEI 2 WHU 1
- 3 LEI 2 WHU 0
- 4 LEI 3 WHU 3
- 5 LEI 1 WHU 1
- 6 LEI 0 WHU 3
- 7 LEI 0 WHU 2
- 8 LEI 0 WHU 2
- 9 LEI 0 WHU 1
- 10 LEI 0 WHU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 29%, 25% end level, West Ham win 46%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 4.0% |
| Leicester by 2 | 7.8% |
| Leicester by 1 | 17.5% |
| Draw | 24.6% |
| West Ham by 1 | 22.2% |
| West Ham by 2 | 14.2% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 9.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 6 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.30 | +0.70 |
 West Ham | 20 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.80 | +0.20 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 17' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 83' | Andy Carroll scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 85' | Aaron Cresswell scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 94' | José Leonardo Ulloa scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +19% LEI |
| 2 | 49' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% LEI |
| 3 | 61' | Winston Reid didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% LEI |
| 4 | 80' | Cheikhou Kouyaté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% LEI |
| 5 | 81' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% LEI |
| 6 | 83' | Andy Carroll scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +10% WHU |
| 7 | 85' | Aaron Cresswell scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +46% WHU |
| 8 | 94' | José Leonardo Ulloa scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +11% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 23% · draw 30% · West Ham 47%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 29% · draw 25% · West Ham 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 34 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · West Ham
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Newcastle 3–0 Swansea Apr 16, 2016 · replay 60% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Southampton Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- West Brom 0–1 Watford Apr 16, 2016 · replay 19% for Watford
- Norwich 0–3 Sunderland Apr 16, 2016 · replay 72% for Sunderland
- Man United 1–0 Aston Villa Apr 16, 2016 · replay 80% for Man United
- Chelsea 0–3 Man City Apr 16, 2016 · replay 87% for Man City
- Arsenal 1–1 Crystal Palace Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Bournemouth 1–2 Liverpool Apr 17, 2016 · replay 67% for Liverpool
- Stoke 0–4 Tottenham Apr 18, 2016 · replay 97% for Tottenham