Matchday 34 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 16, 2016
Norwich 0–3 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Sunderland beat Norwich 3–0, and the replays lean Sunderland’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Norwich, 2 end level. Sunderland made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 0 | 1.27 |
 Sunderland | 3 | 1.78 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Sunderland lucky · −28 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 2, 2 end level, Sunderland win 6.
- 1 NOR 2 SUN 1
- 2 NOR 2 SUN 0
- 3 NOR 2 SUN 2
- 4 NOR 1 SUN 1
- 5 NOR 0 SUN 4
- 6 NOR 1 SUN 4
- 7 NOR 0 SUN 2
- 8 NOR 0 SUN 2
- 9 NOR 2 SUN 3
- 10 NOR 0 SUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 18%, 20% end level, Sunderland win 62%. The line is what actually happened: Sunderland by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 1.6% |
| Norwich by 2 | 4.3% |
| Norwich by 1 | 11.7% |
| Draw | 20.1% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 22.7% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 19.1% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 20.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 19 | 0 | 1.27 | −1.27 |
 Sunderland | 8 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.78 | +1.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 40' | Fabio Borini scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 52' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 56' | Steven Naismith didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 90' | Duncan Watmore scored from a shot | 0.42 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Jonathan Howson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% SUN |
| 2 | 12' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% SUN |
| 3 | 34' | Lee Cattermole didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% NOR |
| 4 | 40' | Fabio Borini scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% SUN |
| 5 | 52' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +10% SUN |
| 6 | 56' | Steven Naismith didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +5% SUN |
| 7 | 62' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +1% SUN |
| 8 | 64' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +2% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 8% · draw 14% · Sunderland 78%
- Final margin
- Sunderland by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.9 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sunderland by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 18% · draw 20% · Sunderland 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sunderland win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 34 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Sunderland
More from matchday 34, 2015-16
- Newcastle 3–0 Swansea Apr 16, 2016 · replay 60% for Newcastle
- Everton 1–1 Southampton Apr 16, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- West Brom 0–1 Watford Apr 16, 2016 · replay 19% for Watford
- Man United 1–0 Aston Villa Apr 16, 2016 · replay 80% for Man United
- Chelsea 0–3 Man City Apr 16, 2016 · replay 87% for Man City
- Arsenal 1–1 Crystal Palace Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 18% draws
- Bournemouth 1–2 Liverpool Apr 17, 2016 · replay 67% for Liverpool
- Leicester 2–2 West Ham Apr 17, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Stoke 0–4 Tottenham Apr 18, 2016 · replay 97% for Tottenham