Matchday 35 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 24, 2016
Leicester 4–0 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Swansea 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Leicester win 9 of 10. Leicester made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 4 | 2.51 |
 Swansea City | 0 | 0.44 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Leicester about even · −3 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 9, 0 end level, Swansea win 1.
- 1 LEI 1 SWA 0
- 2 LEI 2 SWA 0
- 3 LEI 2 SWA 0
- 4 LEI 3 SWA 0
- 5 LEI 3 SWA 0
- 6 LEI 4 SWA 0
- 7 LEI 4 SWA 0
- 8 LEI 5 SWA 0
- 9 LEI 8 SWA 1
- 10 LEI 1 SWA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 95%, 4% end level, Swansea win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 64.0% |
| Leicester by 2 | 18.6% |
| Leicester by 1 | 12.0% |
| Draw | 4.1% |
| Swansea by 1 | 1.2% |
| Swansea by 2 | 0.1% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 19 | 4 | 2.51 | +1.49 |
 Swansea | 9 | 0 | 0.44 | −0.44 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 29' | José Leonardo Ulloa scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 59' | José Leonardo Ulloa scored from a shot | 0.58 |
| 84' | Marc Albrighton scored from a shot | 0.53 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +20% LEI |
| 2 | 16' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% LEI |
| 3 | 26' | Christian Fuchs didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +2% SWA |
| 4 | 27' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +0% SWA |
| 5 | 29' | José Leonardo Ulloa scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +11% LEI |
| 6 | 32' | Federico Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% LEI |
| 7 | 47' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% LEI |
| 8 | 59' | José Leonardo Ulloa scored from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +1% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 97% · draw 3% · Swansea 0%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 95% · draw 4% · Swansea 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 97% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 35 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · Swansea
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Everton Apr 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Liverpool 2–2 Newcastle Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Bournemouth 1–4 Chelsea Apr 23, 2016 · replay 74% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 2–4 Southampton Apr 23, 2016 · replay 88% for Southampton
- Man City 4–0 Stoke Apr 23, 2016 · replay 93% for Man City
- Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Tottenham 1–1 West Brom Apr 25, 2016 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- West Ham 3–2 Man United May 10, 2016 · replay 79% for West Ham
- Norwich 4–2 Watford May 11, 2016 · replay 71% for Norwich