Matchday 35 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 11, 2016
Norwich 4–2 Watford: who deserved to win?
Norwich beat Watford 4–2, and the replays lean Norwich’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Watford, 2 end level. Norwich made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 2.1. An own goal helped Norwich.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 4 | 2.42 |
 Watford | 2 | 2.09 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Norwich lucky · −29 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 6, 2 end level, Watford win 2.
- 1 NOR 3 WAT 2
- 2 NOR 4 WAT 3
- 3 NOR 6 WAT 4
- 4 NOR 3 WAT 1
- 5 NOR 4 WAT 1
- 6 NOR 6 WAT 1
- 7 NOR 1 WAT 1
- 8 NOR 1 WAT 1
- 9 NOR 1 WAT 3
- 10 NOR 2 WAT 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 62%, 16% end level, Watford win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Norwich by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 26.3% |
| Norwich by 2 | 16.7% |
| Norwich by 1 | 19.5% |
| Draw | 16.2% |
| Watford by 1 | 11.8% |
| Watford by 2 | 6.0% |
| Watford by 3+ | 3.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 18 | 3 | 2.42 | +0.58 |
 Watford | 13 | 2 | 2.09 | −0.09 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Troy Deeney scored from a shot | 0.53 |
| 14' | Nathan Redmond scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 17' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shot | 0.83 |
| 50' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.68 |
| 56' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shot | 0.41 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% NOR |
| 2 | 10' | Troy Deeney scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +12% WAT |
| 3 | 14' | The game turned hereNathan Redmond scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +24% NOR |
| 4 | 17' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shotFinishing · 83% chance | +4% NOR |
| 5 | 25' | Nathan Redmond didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +3% WAT |
| 6 | 36' | Own goal by nan, for NorwichOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +12% NOR |
| 7 | 50' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shotFinishing · 68% chance | +4% WAT |
| 8 | 56' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +6% NOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 45% · draw 23% · Watford 32%
- Final margin
- Norwich by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Norwich by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 62% · draw 16% · Watford 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Norwich win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 35 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Watford
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Everton Apr 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Liverpool 2–2 Newcastle Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Bournemouth 1–4 Chelsea Apr 23, 2016 · replay 74% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 2–4 Southampton Apr 23, 2016 · replay 88% for Southampton
- Man City 4–0 Stoke Apr 23, 2016 · replay 93% for Man City
- Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Leicester 4–0 Swansea Apr 24, 2016 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Tottenham 1–1 West Brom Apr 25, 2016 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- West Ham 3–2 Man United May 10, 2016 · replay 79% for West Ham