Matchday 35 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 23, 2016
Bournemouth 1–4 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Chelsea beat Bournemouth 4–1, and the replays lean Chelsea’s way: 7 wins in 10, 1 for Bournemouth, 2 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 0.75 |
 Chelsea | 4 | 1.29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Chelsea lucky · −26 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 1, 2 end level, Chelsea win 7.
- 1 BOU 1 CHE 0
- 2 BOU 0 CHE 0
- 3 BOU 1 CHE 1
- 4 BOU 0 CHE 4
- 5 BOU 1 CHE 4
- 6 BOU 0 CHE 2
- 7 BOU 0 CHE 2
- 8 BOU 0 CHE 1
- 9 BOU 0 CHE 1
- 10 BOU 1 CHE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 14%, 25% end level, Chelsea win 62%. The line is what actually happened: Chelsea by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 2.6% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 10.6% |
| Draw | 24.6% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 28.0% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 19.3% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 14.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 13 | 1 | 0.75 | +0.25 |
 Chelsea | 16 | 4 | 1.28 | +2.72 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 33' | Eden Hazard scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 35' | Tommy Elphick scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 70' | Willian Borges da Silva scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 90' | Eden Hazard scored from a shot | 0.13 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +18% CHE |
| 2 | 16' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% CHE |
| 3 | 29' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% CHE |
| 4 | 32' | Lewis Grabban didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% CHE |
| 5 | 33' | Eden Hazard scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +17% CHE |
| 6 | 35' | Tommy Elphick scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +16% BOU |
| 7 | 37' | Lewis Grabban didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% CHE |
| 8 | 70' | Willian Borges da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +7% CHE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 6% · draw 15% · Chelsea 79%
- Final margin
- Chelsea by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 14% · draw 25% · Chelsea 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Chelsea win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Everton Apr 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Liverpool 2–2 Newcastle Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Aston Villa 2–4 Southampton Apr 23, 2016 · replay 88% for Southampton
- Man City 4–0 Stoke Apr 23, 2016 · replay 93% for Man City
- Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Leicester 4–0 Swansea Apr 24, 2016 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Tottenham 1–1 West Brom Apr 25, 2016 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- West Ham 3–2 Man United May 10, 2016 · replay 79% for West Ham
- Norwich 4–2 Watford May 11, 2016 · replay 71% for Norwich