Matchday 35 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 10, 2016
West Ham 3–2 Man United: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Man United 3–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, West Ham win 7 of 10, 2 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 3 | 1.91 |
 Manchester United | 2 | 0.83 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 West Ham about even · −21 Man United
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 7, 2 end level, Man United win 1.
- 1 WHU 1 MUN 0
- 2 WHU 2 MUN 1
- 3 WHU 3 MUN 1
- 4 WHU 2 MUN 0
- 5 WHU 3 MUN 0
- 6 WHU 4 MUN 1
- 7 WHU 6 MUN 2
- 8 WHU 2 MUN 2
- 9 WHU 0 MUN 0
- 10 WHU 0 MUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 69%, 19% end level, Man United win 12%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 24.4% |
| West Ham by 2 | 20.5% |
| West Ham by 1 | 24.1% |
| Draw | 18.9% |
| Man United by 1 | 8.6% |
| Man United by 2 | 2.9% |
| Man United by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 19 | 3 | 1.91 | +1.09 |
 Man United | 3 | 2 | 0.83 | +1.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Diafra Sakho scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 19' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 50' | Anthony Martial scored from a shot | 0.79 |
| 71' | Anthony Martial scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 75' | Michail Antonio scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 79' | Winston Reid scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Diafra Sakho scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +19% WHU |
| 2 | 19' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +5% MUN |
| 3 | 50' | Anthony Martial scored from a shotFinishing · 79% chance | +6% MUN |
| 4 | 55' | Diafra Sakho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% MUN |
| 5 | 70' | Dimitri Payet didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +2% MUN |
| 6 | 71' | Anthony Martial scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +40% MUN |
| 7 | 75' | The game turned hereMichail Antonio scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +33% WHU |
| 8 | 79' | Winston Reid scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +36% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 66% · draw 23% · Man United 11%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 69% · draw 19% · Man United 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Everton Apr 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Liverpool 2–2 Newcastle Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Bournemouth 1–4 Chelsea Apr 23, 2016 · replay 74% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 2–4 Southampton Apr 23, 2016 · replay 88% for Southampton
- Man City 4–0 Stoke Apr 23, 2016 · replay 93% for Man City
- Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Leicester 4–0 Swansea Apr 24, 2016 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Tottenham 1–1 West Brom Apr 25, 2016 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Norwich 4–2 Watford May 11, 2016 · replay 71% for Norwich