Matchday 35 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 23, 2016
Liverpool 2–2 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Liverpool and Newcastle drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 5 of 10, Newcastle 1, and 4 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 0.7 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 2 | 0.72 |
 Newcastle United | 2 | 0.39 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −17 Liverpool about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 5, 4 end level, Newcastle win 1.
- 1 LIV 1 NEW 0
- 2 LIV 1 NEW 0
- 3 LIV 1 NEW 0
- 4 LIV 2 NEW 0
- 5 LIV 2 NEW 0
- 6 LIV 0 NEW 0
- 7 LIV 0 NEW 0
- 8 LIV 0 NEW 0
- 9 LIV 1 NEW 1
- 10 LIV 0 NEW 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 48%, 39% end level, Newcastle win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 4.6% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 13.0% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 30.0% |
| Draw | 38.9% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 11.2% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 2.1% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 13 | 2 | 0.72 | +1.28 |
 Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 0.40 | +1.60 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Daniel Andre Sturridge scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 29' | Adam David Lallana scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 47' | Papiss Demba Cissé scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 65' | Jack Colback scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Daniel Andre Sturridge scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +20% LIV |
| 2 | 29' | Adam David Lallana scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +12% LIV |
| 3 | 47' | Papiss Demba Cissé scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +10% NEW |
| 4 | 51' | Andros Townsend didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% LIV |
| 5 | 58' | Joe Allen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +2% NEW |
| 6 | 65' | Jack Colback scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +33% NEW |
| 7 | 80' | Daniel Andre Sturridge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% NEW |
| 8 | 86' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 41% · draw 40% · Newcastle 19%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 48% · draw 39% · Newcastle 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Everton Apr 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Bournemouth 1–4 Chelsea Apr 23, 2016 · replay 74% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 2–4 Southampton Apr 23, 2016 · replay 88% for Southampton
- Man City 4–0 Stoke Apr 23, 2016 · replay 93% for Man City
- Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Leicester 4–0 Swansea Apr 24, 2016 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Tottenham 1–1 West Brom Apr 25, 2016 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- West Ham 3–2 Man United May 10, 2016 · replay 79% for West Ham
- Norwich 4–2 Watford May 11, 2016 · replay 71% for Norwich