luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 35 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 23, 2016

Aston Villa 2–4 Southampton: who deserved to win?

Southampton beat Aston Villa 4–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Southampton win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 3.0 expected goals to 1.4.

Full time

GoalsxG
Aston Villa 2 1.39
Southampton 4 3.02

April 23, 2016 · Villa Park · Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Luck index +12 Southampton about even · −12 Aston Villa

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Aston Villa win 1, 1 ends level, Southampton win 8.

  1. 1 AVL 1 SOU 0
  2. 2 AVL 0 SOU 0
  3. 3 AVL 0 SOU 6
  4. 4 AVL 1 SOU 6
  5. 5 AVL 0 SOU 4
  6. 6 AVL 2 SOU 5
  7. 7 AVL 2 SOU 5
  8. 8 AVL 0 SOU 2
  9. 9 AVL 2 SOU 3
  10. 10 AVL 1 SOU 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Aston Villa win 8%, 10% end level, Southampton win 83%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 2.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Aston Villa by 3+0.7%
Aston Villa by 21.9%
Aston Villa by 14.9%
Draw9.6%
Southampton by 115.6%
Southampton by 218.3%
Southampton by 3+49.0%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Aston Villa1621.39+0.61
Southampton1943.02+0.98

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
1'Shane Long didn’t score from a shot0.31
14'Shane Long scored from a shot0.24
37'Ashley Westwood didn’t score from a shot0.37
38'Dušan Tadić scored from a shot0.54
45'Ashley Westwood scored from a shot0.08
55'Jay Rodriguez didn’t score from a shot0.35
56'Shane Long didn’t score from a shot0.40
70'Dušan Tadić scored from a shot0.07
84'Ashley Westwood scored from a shot0.10
93'Sadio Mané scored from a shot0.15

When it happened

Aston Villa’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Aston Villa was ahead in it, below while Southampton was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 1' Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance +8% AVL
2 14' The game turned hereShane Long scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance +20% SOU
3 37' Ashley Westwood didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance +11% SOU
4 38' Dušan Tadić scored from a shotFinishing · 54% chance +8% SOU
5 45' Ashley Westwood scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +15% AVL
6 55' Jay Rodriguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance +5% AVL
7 56' Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance +6% AVL
8 70' Dušan Tadić scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +10% SOU

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Aston Villa 4% · draw 8% · Southampton 88%

Final margin
Southampton by 2
Luck in goals
0.3 for Southampton
Luck-adjusted margin
Southampton by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Aston Villa 8% · draw 10% · Southampton 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 88% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 35 matches, 2015-16 · Aston Villa · Southampton

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