Matchday 35 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 25, 2016
Tottenham 1–1 West Brom: who deserved to win?
Tottenham and West Brom drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 4 of 10, West Brom 3, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 0.9). An own goal helped Tottenham.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 1.06 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 0.90 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −9 Tottenham about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 4, 3 end level, West Brom win 3.
- 1 TOT 1 WBA 0
- 2 TOT 2 WBA 1
- 3 TOT 3 WBA 1
- 4 TOT 3 WBA 0
- 5 TOT 0 WBA 0
- 6 TOT 2 WBA 2
- 7 TOT 2 WBA 2
- 8 TOT 0 WBA 2
- 9 TOT 1 WBA 2
- 10 TOT 0 WBA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 44%, 30% end level, West Brom win 26%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 7.0% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 12.8% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 24.5% |
| Draw | 29.5% |
| West Brom by 1 | 18.2% |
| West Brom by 2 | 6.4% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 1.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 17 | 0 | 1.06 | −1.06 |
 West Brom | 16 | 1 | 0.90 | +0.10 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 72' | Craig Dawson scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Jan Vertonghen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% WBA |
| 2 | 20' | Eric Dier didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% WBA |
| 3 | 32' | Own goal by nan, for TottenhamOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +25% TOT |
| 4 | 46' | Jonas Olsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% TOT |
| 5 | 57' | Erik Lamela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +2% WBA |
| 6 | 62' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% TOT |
| 7 | 72' | Craig Dawson scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +34% WBA |
| 8 | 85' | Stéphane Sessègnon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 39% · draw 29% · West Brom 32%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 44% · draw 30% · West Brom 26% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 35 matches, 2015-16 · Tottenham · West Brom
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Everton Apr 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Liverpool 2–2 Newcastle Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Bournemouth 1–4 Chelsea Apr 23, 2016 · replay 74% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 2–4 Southampton Apr 23, 2016 · replay 88% for Southampton
- Man City 4–0 Stoke Apr 23, 2016 · replay 93% for Man City
- Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Leicester 4–0 Swansea Apr 24, 2016 · replay 97% for Leicester
- West Ham 3–2 Man United May 10, 2016 · replay 79% for West Ham
- Norwich 4–2 Watford May 11, 2016 · replay 71% for Norwich