Matchday 35 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 24, 2016
Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Sunderland and Arsenal drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Sunderland win 2 of 10, Arsenal 5, and 3 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 0 | 0.50 |
 Arsenal | 0 | 1.34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Sunderland about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 2, 3 end level, Arsenal win 5.
- 1 SUN 2 ARS 1
- 2 SUN 1 ARS 0
- 3 SUN 1 ARS 1
- 4 SUN 0 ARS 0
- 5 SUN 1 ARS 1
- 6 SUN 0 ARS 3
- 7 SUN 0 ARS 2
- 8 SUN 0 ARS 2
- 9 SUN 0 ARS 1
- 10 SUN 0 ARS 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 15%, 28% end level, Arsenal win 57%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 2.9% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 11.8% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 28.8% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 17.3% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 10.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 12 | 0 | 0.50 | −0.50 |
 Arsenal | 20 | 0 | 1.34 | −1.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 34' | Alex Iwobi didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Alex Iwobi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% SUN |
| 2 | 8' | Per Mertesacker didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% SUN |
| 3 | 34' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% SUN |
| 4 | 34' | Alex Iwobi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +10% SUN |
| 5 | 40' | Alex Iwobi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SUN |
| 6 | 55' | Alex Iwobi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SUN |
| 7 | 81' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SUN |
| 8 | 90' | Lamine Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 13% · draw 27% · Arsenal 60%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 15% · draw 28% · Arsenal 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Everton Apr 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Liverpool 2–2 Newcastle Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Bournemouth 1–4 Chelsea Apr 23, 2016 · replay 74% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 2–4 Southampton Apr 23, 2016 · replay 88% for Southampton
- Man City 4–0 Stoke Apr 23, 2016 · replay 93% for Man City
- Leicester 4–0 Swansea Apr 24, 2016 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Tottenham 1–1 West Brom Apr 25, 2016 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- West Ham 3–2 Man United May 10, 2016 · replay 79% for West Ham
- Norwich 4–2 Watford May 11, 2016 · replay 71% for Norwich