Matchday 35 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 23, 2016
Man City 4–0 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Stoke 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man City win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Man City made the better chances: 3.0 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 4 | 2.97 |
 Stoke City | 0 | 1.02 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Man City about even · −7 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 9, 1 ends level, Stoke win 0.
- 1 MCI 3 STK 2
- 2 MCI 4 STK 2
- 3 MCI 2 STK 0
- 4 MCI 3 STK 0
- 5 MCI 3 STK 0
- 6 MCI 4 STK 0
- 7 MCI 4 STK 0
- 8 MCI 5 STK 0
- 9 MCI 7 STK 0
- 10 MCI 1 STK 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 90%, 6% end level, Stoke win 4%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 62.2% |
| Man City by 2 | 15.7% |
| Man City by 1 | 11.8% |
| Draw | 6.4% |
| Stoke by 1 | 2.9% |
| Stoke by 2 | 0.7% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 11 (1 pen) | 4 | 2.97 | +1.03 |
 Stoke | 14 | 0 | 1.02 | −1.02 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 34' | Fernando Francisco Reges scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 42' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 60' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 63' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho scored from a shot | 0.51 |
| 73' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho scored from a shot | 0.93 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% STK |
| 2 | 15' | Ryan Shawcross didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% MCI |
| 3 | 22' | Aleksandar Kolarov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% STK |
| 4 | 29' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% MCI |
| 5 | 34' | Fernando Francisco Reges scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +23% MCI |
| 6 | 42' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +3% MCI |
| 7 | 48' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +3% MCI |
| 8 | 58' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +1% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 96% · draw 3% · Stoke 1%
- Final margin
- Man City by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 90% · draw 6% · Stoke 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 35 matches, 2015-16 · Man City · Stoke
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Everton Apr 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws
- Liverpool 2–2 Newcastle Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Bournemouth 1–4 Chelsea Apr 23, 2016 · replay 74% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 2–4 Southampton Apr 23, 2016 · replay 88% for Southampton
- Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Leicester 4–0 Swansea Apr 24, 2016 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Tottenham 1–1 West Brom Apr 25, 2016 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- West Ham 3–2 Man United May 10, 2016 · replay 79% for West Ham
- Norwich 4–2 Watford May 11, 2016 · replay 71% for Norwich