Matchday 35 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 13, 2016
Crystal Palace 0–0 Everton: who deserved to win?
Crystal Palace and Everton drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Crystal Palace win 8 of 10, Everton 1, and 1 end level. Crystal Palace made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 0 | 2.67 |
 Everton | 0 | 0.59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −38 Crystal Palace unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 8, 1 ends level, Everton win 1.
- 1 CRY 1 EVE 0
- 2 CRY 1 EVE 0
- 3 CRY 4 EVE 2
- 4 CRY 3 EVE 1
- 5 CRY 2 EVE 0
- 6 CRY 3 EVE 0
- 7 CRY 4 EVE 0
- 8 CRY 5 EVE 0
- 9 CRY 2 EVE 2
- 10 CRY 1 EVE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 81%, 13% end level, Everton win 6%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 37.7% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 23.5% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 20.0% |
| Draw | 12.7% |
| Everton by 1 | 4.7% |
| Everton by 2 | 1.2% |
| Everton by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 20 | 0 | 2.67 | −2.67 |
 Everton | 9 | 0 | 0.59 | −0.59 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 44' | Dwight Gayle didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 61' | Jason Puncheon didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 81' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 86' | Emmanuel Adebayor didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Dwight Gayle didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% EVE |
| 2 | 29' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% CRY |
| 3 | 44' | Dwight Gayle didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +10% EVE |
| 4 | 61' | Jason Puncheon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +13% EVE |
| 5 | 72' | Emmanuel Adebayor didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +11% EVE |
| 6 | 81' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +17% EVE |
| 7 | 81' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% EVE |
| 8 | 86' | Emmanuel Adebayor didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +21% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 85% · draw 11% · Everton 4%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Crystal Palace by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 81% · draw 13% · Everton 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 35, 2015-16
- Liverpool 2–2 Newcastle Apr 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Bournemouth 1–4 Chelsea Apr 23, 2016 · replay 74% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 2–4 Southampton Apr 23, 2016 · replay 88% for Southampton
- Man City 4–0 Stoke Apr 23, 2016 · replay 93% for Man City
- Sunderland 0–0 Arsenal Apr 24, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Leicester 4–0 Swansea Apr 24, 2016 · replay 97% for Leicester
- Tottenham 1–1 West Brom Apr 25, 2016 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- West Ham 3–2 Man United May 10, 2016 · replay 79% for West Ham
- Norwich 4–2 Watford May 11, 2016 · replay 71% for Norwich