Matchday 36 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 30, 2016
Arsenal 1–0 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Norwich 1–0, but the replays call it even: Arsenal win 4 of 10, Norwich 3, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.8).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 1 | 0.81 |
 Norwich City | 0 | 0.82 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +47 Arsenal lucky · −47 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 4, 3 end level, Norwich win 3.
- 1 ARS 1 NOR 0
- 2 ARS 2 NOR 1
- 3 ARS 2 NOR 0
- 4 ARS 2 NOR 0
- 5 ARS 0 NOR 0
- 6 ARS 0 NOR 0
- 7 ARS 0 NOR 0
- 8 ARS 0 NOR 2
- 9 ARS 1 NOR 2
- 10 ARS 0 NOR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 36%, 33% end level, Norwich win 31%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 3.7% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 9.3% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 23.1% |
| Draw | 33.3% |
| Norwich by 1 | 21.7% |
| Norwich by 2 | 6.6% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 2.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 14 | 1 | 0.81 | +0.19 |
 Norwich | 12 | 0 | 0.82 | −0.82 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 58' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Nathan Redmond didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% ARS |
| 2 | 10' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% NOR |
| 3 | 41' | Nathan Redmond didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% ARS |
| 4 | 43' | Gary O''Neil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% ARS |
| 5 | 58' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +31% ARS |
| 6 | 78' | Sébastien Aymar Bassong Nguena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% ARS |
| 7 | 86' | Nathan Redmond didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +3% ARS |
| 8 | 90' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 34% · draw 34% · Norwich 32%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 36% · draw 33% · Norwich 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 53% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 36 matches, 2015-16 · Arsenal · Norwich
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Everton 2–1 Bournemouth Apr 30, 2016 · replay 42% for Everton
- Watford 3–2 Aston Villa Apr 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Watford
- Stoke 1–1 Sunderland Apr 30, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Newcastle 1–0 Crystal Palace Apr 30, 2016 · replay 37% for Newcastle
- West Brom 0–3 West Ham Apr 30, 2016 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Swansea 3–1 Liverpool May 1, 2016 · replay 82% for Swansea
- Man United 1–1 Leicester May 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Southampton 4–2 Man City May 1, 2016 · replay 94% for Southampton
- Chelsea 2–2 Tottenham May 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws