Matchday 36 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 1, 2016
Man United 1–1 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Man United and Leicester drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Man United win 4 of 10, Leicester 3, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.3 expected goals to 1.1).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 1 | 1.25 |
 Leicester City | 1 | 1.13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −4 Man United about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 4, 3 end level, Leicester win 3.
- 1 MUN 2 LEI 1
- 2 MUN 1 LEI 0
- 3 MUN 3 LEI 1
- 4 MUN 3 LEI 0
- 5 MUN 2 LEI 2
- 6 MUN 0 LEI 0
- 7 MUN 0 LEI 0
- 8 MUN 0 LEI 3
- 9 MUN 1 LEI 2
- 10 MUN 0 LEI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 40%, 28% end level, Leicester win 32%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 6.5% |
| Man United by 2 | 12.6% |
| Man United by 1 | 21.1% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
| Leicester by 1 | 18.6% |
| Leicester by 2 | 9.2% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 4.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 21 | 1 | 1.25 | −0.25 |
 Leicester | 14 | 1 | 1.13 | −0.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Anthony Martial scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 16' | Wes Morgan scored from a shot | 0.14 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Anthony Martial scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +20% MUN |
| 2 | 11' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% MUN |
| 3 | 16' | Wes Morgan scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +20% LEI |
| 4 | 35' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% LEI |
| 5 | 40' | Wes Morgan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% MUN |
| 6 | 50' | José Leonardo Ulloa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% MUN |
| 7 | 79' | José Leonardo Ulloa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% MUN |
| 8 | 80' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +12% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 40% · draw 28% · Leicester 32%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 40% · draw 28% · Leicester 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 36 matches, 2015-16 · Man United · Leicester
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Everton 2–1 Bournemouth Apr 30, 2016 · replay 42% for Everton
- Watford 3–2 Aston Villa Apr 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Watford
- Stoke 1–1 Sunderland Apr 30, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Newcastle 1–0 Crystal Palace Apr 30, 2016 · replay 37% for Newcastle
- Arsenal 1–0 Norwich Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Arsenal
- West Brom 0–3 West Ham Apr 30, 2016 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Swansea 3–1 Liverpool May 1, 2016 · replay 82% for Swansea
- Southampton 4–2 Man City May 1, 2016 · replay 94% for Southampton
- Chelsea 2–2 Tottenham May 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws