Matchday 36 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 30, 2016
West Brom 0–3 West Ham: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat West Brom 3–0, but the replays call it even: West Ham win 3 of 10, West Brom 4, 3 end level. West Brom made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 0 | 1.20 |
 West Ham United | 3 | 0.84 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 West Ham lucky · −52 West Brom
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 4, 3 end level, West Ham win 3.
- 1 WBA 1 WHU 0
- 2 WBA 2 WHU 1
- 3 WBA 3 WHU 1
- 4 WBA 2 WHU 0
- 5 WBA 1 WHU 1
- 6 WBA 0 WHU 0
- 7 WBA 0 WHU 0
- 8 WBA 0 WHU 2
- 9 WBA 1 WHU 2
- 10 WBA 0 WHU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 37%, 30% end level, West Ham win 33%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 4.0% |
| West Brom by 2 | 11.2% |
| West Brom by 1 | 21.3% |
| Draw | 30.3% |
| West Ham by 1 | 20.4% |
| West Ham by 2 | 9.2% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 3.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 15 | 0 | 1.20 | −1.20 |
 West Ham | 8 | 3 | 0.84 | +2.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 33' | Cheikhou Kouyaté scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 46' | Mark Noble scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 78' | Mark Noble scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Craig Gardner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% WHU |
| 2 | 7' | Craig Gardner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% WHU |
| 3 | 19' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% WBA |
| 4 | 22' | Craig Gardner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% WHU |
| 5 | 24' | Gareth McAuley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% WHU |
| 6 | 33' | The game turned hereCheikhou Kouyaté scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +21% WHU |
| 7 | 46' | Mark Noble scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +14% WHU |
| 8 | 63' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 19% · draw 25% · West Ham 56%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.5 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 37% · draw 30% · West Ham 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 36 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · West Ham
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Everton 2–1 Bournemouth Apr 30, 2016 · replay 42% for Everton
- Watford 3–2 Aston Villa Apr 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Watford
- Stoke 1–1 Sunderland Apr 30, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Newcastle 1–0 Crystal Palace Apr 30, 2016 · replay 37% for Newcastle
- Arsenal 1–0 Norwich Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Arsenal
- Swansea 3–1 Liverpool May 1, 2016 · replay 82% for Swansea
- Man United 1–1 Leicester May 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Southampton 4–2 Man City May 1, 2016 · replay 94% for Southampton
- Chelsea 2–2 Tottenham May 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws