Matchday 36 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 1, 2016
Swansea 3–1 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Swansea beat Liverpool 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Swansea win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Swansea made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 3 | 1.83 |
 Liverpool | 1 | 0.78 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Swansea about even · −18 Liverpool
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 7, 2 end level, Liverpool win 1.
- 1 SWA 1 LIV 0
- 2 SWA 3 LIV 2
- 3 SWA 2 LIV 1
- 4 SWA 3 LIV 1
- 5 SWA 2 LIV 0
- 6 SWA 4 LIV 1
- 7 SWA 5 LIV 1
- 8 SWA 2 LIV 2
- 9 SWA 0 LIV 0
- 10 SWA 1 LIV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 73%, 17% end level, Liverpool win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Swansea by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 27.5% |
| Swansea by 2 | 22.5% |
| Swansea by 1 | 23.4% |
| Draw | 17.4% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 7.2% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 1.6% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 19 | 3 | 1.83 | +1.17 |
 Liverpool | 10 | 1 | 0.78 | +0.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 19' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 26' | Jordi Amat Maas didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 32' | Jack Frank Porteous Cork scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 64' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shot | 0.46 |
| 66' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% LIV |
| 2 | 12' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% LIV |
| 3 | 19' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +20% SWA |
| 4 | 25' | Wayne Routledge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +2% LIV |
| 5 | 26' | Jordi Amat Maas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +4% LIV |
| 6 | 32' | Jack Frank Porteous Cork scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +12% SWA |
| 7 | 64' | Christian Benteke Liolo scored from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +5% LIV |
| 8 | 66' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +8% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 86% · draw 10% · Liverpool 4%
- Final margin
- Swansea by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 73% · draw 17% · Liverpool 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Swansea win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 36 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Liverpool
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Everton 2–1 Bournemouth Apr 30, 2016 · replay 42% for Everton
- Watford 3–2 Aston Villa Apr 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Watford
- Stoke 1–1 Sunderland Apr 30, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Newcastle 1–0 Crystal Palace Apr 30, 2016 · replay 37% for Newcastle
- Arsenal 1–0 Norwich Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Arsenal
- West Brom 0–3 West Ham Apr 30, 2016 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Man United 1–1 Leicester May 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Southampton 4–2 Man City May 1, 2016 · replay 94% for Southampton
- Chelsea 2–2 Tottenham May 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws