Matchday 36 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 30, 2016
Newcastle 1–0 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Newcastle beat Crystal Palace 1–0, but the replays lean toward Crystal Palace: 5 wins in 10 to Newcastle’s 2, 3 end level. Crystal Palace made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 1 | 0.45 |
 Crystal Palace | 0 | 1.07 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +63 Newcastle very lucky · −63 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 2, 3 end level, Crystal Palace win 5.
- 1 NEW 1 CRY 0
- 2 NEW 2 CRY 0
- 3 NEW 0 CRY 0
- 4 NEW 0 CRY 0
- 5 NEW 0 CRY 0
- 6 NEW 1 CRY 3
- 7 NEW 0 CRY 2
- 8 NEW 0 CRY 1
- 9 NEW 1 CRY 2
- 10 NEW 0 CRY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Newcastle win 20%, 35% end level, Crystal Palace win 45%. The line is what actually happened: Newcastle by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 4.1% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 15.2% |
| Draw | 34.7% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 28.2% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 12.2% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 4.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Newcastle | 10 | 1 | 0.45 | +0.55 |
 Crystal Palace | 9 (1 pen) | 0 | 1.07 | −1.07 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 57' | Andros Townsend scored from a free kick | 0.01 |
| 69' | Yohan Cabaye didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Newcastle’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Jason Puncheon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% NEW |
| 2 | 11' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% CRY |
| 3 | 42' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% NEW |
| 4 | 43' | Jack Colback didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% CRY |
| 5 | 49' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CRY |
| 6 | 57' | Andros Townsend scored from a free kickFinishing · 1% chance | +32% NEW |
| 7 | 69' | Yohan Cabaye didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +29% NEW |
| 8 | 79' | Yannick Bolasie Yala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% NEW |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Newcastle 13% · draw 29% · Crystal Palace 59%
- Final margin
- Newcastle by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Crystal Palace by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Newcastle 20% · draw 35% · Crystal Palace 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Newcastle win 37% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 36 matches, 2015-16 · Newcastle · Crystal Palace
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Everton 2–1 Bournemouth Apr 30, 2016 · replay 42% for Everton
- Watford 3–2 Aston Villa Apr 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Watford
- Stoke 1–1 Sunderland Apr 30, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Arsenal 1–0 Norwich Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Arsenal
- West Brom 0–3 West Ham Apr 30, 2016 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Swansea 3–1 Liverpool May 1, 2016 · replay 82% for Swansea
- Man United 1–1 Leicester May 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Southampton 4–2 Man City May 1, 2016 · replay 94% for Southampton
- Chelsea 2–2 Tottenham May 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws