Matchday 36 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 1, 2016
Southampton 4–2 Man City: who deserved to win?
Southampton beat Man City 4–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Southampton win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 3.0 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 4 | 3.03 |
 Manchester City | 2 | 0.76 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Southampton about even · −6 Man City
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southampton win 9, 1 ends level, Man City win 0.
- 1 SOU 3 MCI 2
- 2 SOU 4 MCI 2
- 3 SOU 3 MCI 1
- 4 SOU 4 MCI 1
- 5 SOU 5 MCI 2
- 6 SOU 4 MCI 0
- 7 SOU 5 MCI 0
- 8 SOU 5 MCI 0
- 9 SOU 7 MCI 0
- 10 SOU 2 MCI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Southampton win 91%, 6% end level, Man City win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southampton by 3+ | 60.5% |
| Southampton by 2 | 17.1% |
| Southampton by 1 | 13.4% |
| Draw | 6.0% |
| Man City by 1 | 2.4% |
| Man City by 2 | 0.5% |
| Man City by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southampton | 15 | 4 | 3.03 | +0.97 |
 Man City | 6 | 2 | 0.76 | +1.24 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 19' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 24' | Shane Long scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 27' | Sadio Mané scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 43' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 56' | José Miguel da Rocha Fonte didn’t score from a shot | 0.89 |
| 56' | Sadio Mané scored from a shot | 0.81 |
| 67' | Sadio Mané scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 77' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Southampton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% MCI |
| 2 | 19' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +8% SOU |
| 3 | 24' | Shane Long scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +20% SOU |
| 4 | 27' | Sadio Mané scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +11% SOU |
| 5 | 43' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +10% MCI |
| 6 | 49' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% SOU |
| 7 | 56' | José Miguel da Rocha Fonte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 89% chance | +9% MCI |
| 8 | 56' | Sadio Mané scored from a shotFinishing · 81% chance | +2% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southampton 97% · draw 2% · Man City 1%
- Final margin
- Southampton by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Southampton 91% · draw 6% · Man City 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 94% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 36 matches, 2015-16 · Southampton · Man City
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Everton 2–1 Bournemouth Apr 30, 2016 · replay 42% for Everton
- Watford 3–2 Aston Villa Apr 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Watford
- Stoke 1–1 Sunderland Apr 30, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Newcastle 1–0 Crystal Palace Apr 30, 2016 · replay 37% for Newcastle
- Arsenal 1–0 Norwich Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Arsenal
- West Brom 0–3 West Ham Apr 30, 2016 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Swansea 3–1 Liverpool May 1, 2016 · replay 82% for Swansea
- Man United 1–1 Leicester May 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Chelsea 2–2 Tottenham May 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws