Matchday 36 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 30, 2016
Watford 3–2 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Watford beat Aston Villa 3–2, and the replays lean Watford’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Aston Villa, 3 end level. Watford made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 3 | 1.13 |
 Aston Villa | 2 | 0.62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Watford lucky · −42 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 4, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 3.
- 1 WAT 1 AVL 0
- 2 WAT 1 AVL 0
- 3 WAT 2 AVL 0
- 4 WAT 2 AVL 0
- 5 WAT 0 AVL 0
- 6 WAT 0 AVL 0
- 7 WAT 1 AVL 1
- 8 WAT 0 AVL 2
- 9 WAT 0 AVL 1
- 10 WAT 1 AVL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 42%, 32% end level, Aston Villa win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Watford by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 5.4% |
| Watford by 2 | 11.2% |
| Watford by 1 | 24.9% |
| Draw | 31.9% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 18.7% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 6.1% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 1.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 18 | 3 | 1.13 | +1.87 |
 Aston Villa | 8 | 2 | 0.62 | +1.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 27' | Ciaran Clark scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 46' | Almen Abdi scored from a free kick | 0.06 |
| 47' | Jordan Ayew scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 89' | Troy Deeney scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 92' | Troy Deeney scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% AVL |
| 2 | 27' | Ciaran Clark scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +26% AVL |
| 3 | 46' | Almen Abdi scored from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +31% WAT |
| 4 | 47' | Jordan Ayew scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +30% AVL |
| 5 | 58' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% AVL |
| 6 | 74' | Almen Abdi didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +4% AVL |
| 7 | 89' | The game turned hereTroy Deeney scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +37% WAT |
| 8 | 92' | Troy Deeney scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +45% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 50% · draw 31% · Aston Villa 19%
- Final margin
- Watford by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 42% · draw 32% · Aston Villa 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Watford win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 36 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Aston Villa
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Everton 2–1 Bournemouth Apr 30, 2016 · replay 42% for Everton
- Stoke 1–1 Sunderland Apr 30, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Newcastle 1–0 Crystal Palace Apr 30, 2016 · replay 37% for Newcastle
- Arsenal 1–0 Norwich Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Arsenal
- West Brom 0–3 West Ham Apr 30, 2016 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Swansea 3–1 Liverpool May 1, 2016 · replay 82% for Swansea
- Man United 1–1 Leicester May 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Southampton 4–2 Man City May 1, 2016 · replay 94% for Southampton
- Chelsea 2–2 Tottenham May 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws