Matchday 36 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 2, 2016
Chelsea 2–2 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Chelsea and Tottenham drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Chelsea win 1 of 10, Tottenham 8, and 1 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 2 | 0.77 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 2.32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Chelsea lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 1, 1 ends level, Tottenham win 8.
- 1 CHE 1 TOT 0
- 2 CHE 0 TOT 0
- 3 CHE 1 TOT 6
- 4 CHE 1 TOT 5
- 5 CHE 0 TOT 3
- 6 CHE 0 TOT 3
- 7 CHE 1 TOT 3
- 8 CHE 0 TOT 2
- 9 CHE 2 TOT 3
- 10 CHE 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 7%, 13% end level, Tottenham win 79%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 1.7% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 5.1% |
| Draw | 13.3% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 21.5% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 21.7% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 36.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 13 | 2 | 0.77 | +1.23 |
 Tottenham | 16 | 2 | 2.32 | −0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 34' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.91 |
| 43' | Heung-Min Son scored from a shot | 0.47 |
| 57' | Gary Cahill scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 82' | Eden Hazard scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
As low as 4% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27' | Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% CHE |
| 2 | 34' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 91% chance | +3% TOT |
| 3 | 39' | Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +3% CHE |
| 4 | 43' | Heung-Min Son scored from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +9% TOT |
| 5 | 57' | Gary Cahill scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +13% CHE |
| 6 | 61' | Willian Borges da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% TOT |
| 7 | 75' | Ryan Mason didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +2% CHE |
| 8 | 82' | Eden Hazard scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +40% CHE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 6% · draw 15% · Tottenham 79%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 7% · draw 13% · Tottenham 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Everton 2–1 Bournemouth Apr 30, 2016 · replay 42% for Everton
- Watford 3–2 Aston Villa Apr 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Watford
- Stoke 1–1 Sunderland Apr 30, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Newcastle 1–0 Crystal Palace Apr 30, 2016 · replay 37% for Newcastle
- Arsenal 1–0 Norwich Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Arsenal
- West Brom 0–3 West Ham Apr 30, 2016 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Swansea 3–1 Liverpool May 1, 2016 · replay 82% for Swansea
- Man United 1–1 Leicester May 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Southampton 4–2 Man City May 1, 2016 · replay 94% for Southampton