Matchday 36 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 30, 2016
Everton 2–1 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Everton beat Bournemouth 2–1, but the replays lean toward Bournemouth: 4 wins in 10 to Everton’s 3, 3 end level. Bournemouth made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 2 | 0.89 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 1.43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Everton lucky · −58 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 3, 3 end level, Bournemouth win 4.
- 1 EVE 1 BOU 0
- 2 EVE 1 BOU 0
- 3 EVE 2 BOU 0
- 4 EVE 1 BOU 1
- 5 EVE 1 BOU 1
- 6 EVE 0 BOU 0
- 7 EVE 2 BOU 5
- 8 EVE 0 BOU 2
- 9 EVE 0 BOU 1
- 10 EVE 1 BOU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 28%, 27% end level, Bournemouth win 44%. The line is what actually happened: Everton by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 2.6% |
| Everton by 2 | 7.5% |
| Everton by 1 | 18.1% |
| Draw | 27.5% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 23.4% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 13.9% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 7.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 11 | 2 | 0.89 | +1.11 |
 Bournemouth | 16 | 1 | 1.43 | −0.43 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Tom Cleverley scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 8' | Marc Pugh scored from a shot | 0.47 |
| 63' | Leighton Baines scored from a shot | 0.17 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Tom Cleverley scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +20% EVE |
| 2 | 8' | Marc Pugh scored from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +12% BOU |
| 3 | 35' | Ross Barkley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% BOU |
| 4 | 59' | Callum Wilson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% EVE |
| 5 | 63' | Leighton Baines scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +29% EVE |
| 6 | 69' | Benik Afobe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +6% EVE |
| 7 | 77' | Benik Afobe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% EVE |
| 8 | 81' | Junior Stanislas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 24% · draw 26% · Bournemouth 50%
- Final margin
- Everton by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 28% · draw 27% · Bournemouth 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Everton win 42% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Watford 3–2 Aston Villa Apr 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Watford
- Stoke 1–1 Sunderland Apr 30, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Newcastle 1–0 Crystal Palace Apr 30, 2016 · replay 37% for Newcastle
- Arsenal 1–0 Norwich Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Arsenal
- West Brom 0–3 West Ham Apr 30, 2016 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Swansea 3–1 Liverpool May 1, 2016 · replay 82% for Swansea
- Man United 1–1 Leicester May 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Southampton 4–2 Man City May 1, 2016 · replay 94% for Southampton
- Chelsea 2–2 Tottenham May 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws