Matchday 36 · Premier League 2015-16 · April 30, 2016
Stoke 1–1 Sunderland: who deserved to win?
Stoke and Sunderland drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Stoke win 2 of 10, Sunderland 6, and 2 end level. Sunderland made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 1 | 0.72 |
 Sunderland | 1 | 1.80 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Stoke about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 2, 2 end level, Sunderland win 6.
- 1 STK 1 SUN 0
- 2 STK 2 SUN 0
- 3 STK 1 SUN 1
- 4 STK 0 SUN 0
- 5 STK 1 SUN 5
- 6 STK 1 SUN 3
- 7 STK 0 SUN 2
- 8 STK 3 SUN 4
- 9 STK 0 SUN 1
- 10 STK 0 SUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 18%, 24% end level, Sunderland win 58%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 1.2% |
| Stoke by 2 | 4.0% |
| Stoke by 1 | 12.9% |
| Draw | 24.1% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 26.1% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 18.5% |
| Sunderland by 3+ | 13.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 11 | 1 | 0.73 | +0.27 |
 Sunderland | 15 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.80 | −0.80 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 49' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 93' | Jermain Defoe scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Patrick van Aanholt didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chanceJermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +8% STK |
| 2 | 33' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% SUN |
| 3 | 43' | Lamine Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% STK |
| 4 | 49' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +24% STK |
| 5 | 76' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% STK |
| 6 | 80' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% STK |
| 7 | 91' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% STK |
| 8 | 93' | Jermain Defoe scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +11% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 11% · draw 21% · Sunderland 68%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sunderland by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 18% · draw 24% · Sunderland 58% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 36 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Sunderland
More from matchday 36, 2015-16
- Everton 2–1 Bournemouth Apr 30, 2016 · replay 42% for Everton
- Watford 3–2 Aston Villa Apr 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Watford
- Newcastle 1–0 Crystal Palace Apr 30, 2016 · replay 37% for Newcastle
- Arsenal 1–0 Norwich Apr 30, 2016 · replay 53% for Arsenal
- West Brom 0–3 West Ham Apr 30, 2016 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Swansea 3–1 Liverpool May 1, 2016 · replay 82% for Swansea
- Man United 1–1 Leicester May 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Southampton 4–2 Man City May 1, 2016 · replay 94% for Southampton
- Chelsea 2–2 Tottenham May 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 13% draws