Matchday 37 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 8, 2016
Tottenham 1–2 Southampton: who deserved to win?
Southampton beat Tottenham 2–1, a result the replays rarely give: Tottenham win 7 of 10, Southampton only 1, 2 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 2.34 |
 Southampton | 2 | 0.95 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +77 Southampton very lucky · −77 Tottenham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 7, 2 end level, Southampton win 1.
- 1 TOT 2 SOU 1
- 2 TOT 4 SOU 3
- 3 TOT 1 SOU 0
- 4 TOT 2 SOU 0
- 5 TOT 2 SOU 0
- 6 TOT 4 SOU 1
- 7 TOT 5 SOU 0
- 8 TOT 2 SOU 2
- 9 TOT 2 SOU 2
- 10 TOT 1 SOU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Tottenham win 69%, 17% end level, Southampton win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tottenham by 3+ | 25.9% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 20.1% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 22.9% |
| Draw | 16.9% |
| Southampton by 1 | 9.8% |
| Southampton by 2 | 3.2% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham | 19 | 1 | 2.34 | −1.34 |
 Southampton | 10 | 2 | 0.95 | +1.05 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Heung-Min Son scored from a shot | 0.58 |
| 30' | Steven Davis scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 47' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 71' | Steven Davis scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 94' | Nacer Chadli didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
Tottenham’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +6% SOU |
| 2 | 10' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% TOT |
| 3 | 15' | Heung-Min Son scored from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +10% TOT |
| 4 | 30' | Steven Davis scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +20% SOU |
| 5 | 47' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +9% SOU |
| 6 | 53' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% TOT |
| 7 | 71' | The game turned hereSteven Davis scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +38% SOU |
| 8 | 94' | Nacer Chadli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +20% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tottenham 71% · draw 17% · Southampton 12%
- Final margin
- Southampton by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Southampton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Tottenham 69% · draw 17% · Southampton 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 23% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 37 matches, 2015-16 · Tottenham · Southampton
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