Matchday 37 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 8, 2016
Man City 2–2 Arsenal: who deserved to win?
Man City and Arsenal drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Man City win 3 of 10, Arsenal 3, and 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.7 expected goals to 0.9).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 2 | 0.74 |
 Arsenal | 2 | 0.89 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −1 Man City about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 3, 4 end level, Arsenal win 3.
- 1 MCI 2 ARS 1
- 2 MCI 1 ARS 0
- 3 MCI 2 ARS 0
- 4 MCI 0 ARS 0
- 5 MCI 1 ARS 1
- 6 MCI 0 ARS 0
- 7 MCI 0 ARS 0
- 8 MCI 0 ARS 2
- 9 MCI 1 ARS 2
- 10 MCI 1 ARS 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 32%, 36% end level, Arsenal win 31%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 2.6% |
| Man City by 2 | 7.5% |
| Man City by 1 | 22.1% |
| Draw | 36.5% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 20.9% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 8.2% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 14 | 2 | 0.74 | +1.26 |
 Arsenal | 5 | 2 | 0.89 | +1.11 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 9' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 50' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 66' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 67' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.29 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +21% MCI |
| 2 | 9' | Olivier Giroud scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +18% ARS |
| 3 | 50' | Kevin De Bruyne scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +29% MCI |
| 4 | 66' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +12% MCI |
| 5 | 67' | Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +26% ARS |
| 6 | 72' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% ARS |
| 7 | 73' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% ARS |
| 8 | 87' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 27% · draw 34% · Arsenal 39%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 32% · draw 36% · Arsenal 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 37, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Stoke May 7, 2016 · replay 51% for Crystal Palace
- Leicester 3–1 Everton May 7, 2016 · replay 98% for Leicester
- Aston Villa 0–0 Newcastle May 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 36% draws
- Sunderland 3–2 Chelsea May 7, 2016 · replay 40% for Sunderland
- West Ham 1–4 Swansea May 7, 2016 · replay 76% for Swansea
- Norwich 0–1 Man United May 7, 2016 · replay 66% for Man United
- Bournemouth 1–1 West Brom May 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 21% draws
- Tottenham 1–2 Southampton May 8, 2016 · replay 23% for Southampton
- Liverpool 2–0 Watford May 8, 2016 · replay 91% for Liverpool