luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 37 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 7, 2016

Aston Villa 0–0 Newcastle: who deserved to win?

Aston Villa and Newcastle drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Aston Villa win 0 of 10, Newcastle 6, and 4 end level. Newcastle made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.0.

Full time

GoalsxG
Aston Villa 0 0.02
Newcastle United 0 0.97

May 7, 2016 · Villa Park · Referee: Robert Madley

Luck index +30 Aston Villa lucky for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Aston Villa win 0, 4 end level, Newcastle win 6.

  1. 1 AVL 0 NEW 0
  2. 2 AVL 0 NEW 0
  3. 3 AVL 0 NEW 0
  4. 4 AVL 0 NEW 0
  5. 5 AVL 0 NEW 3
  6. 6 AVL 0 NEW 2
  7. 7 AVL 0 NEW 2
  8. 8 AVL 0 NEW 1
  9. 9 AVL 0 NEW 1
  10. 10 AVL 0 NEW 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Aston Villa win 2%, 36% end level, Newcastle win 62%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Aston Villa by 3+0.0%
Aston Villa by 20.1%
Aston Villa by 12.2%
Draw36.0%
Newcastle by 134.4%
Newcastle by 219.4%
Newcastle by 3+7.8%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Aston Villa200.02−0.02
Newcastle900.97−0.97

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Aston Villa’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Aston Villa was ahead in it, below while Newcastle was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 22' Papiss Demba Cissé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +3% AVL
2 35' Papiss Demba Cissé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +3% AVL
3 45' Jack Colback didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +2% AVL
4 60' Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance +10% AVL
5 70' Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% AVL
6 73' Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance +7% AVL
7 82' Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +4% AVL
8 91' Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% AVL

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Aston Villa 2% · draw 34% · Newcastle 64%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.7 for Aston Villa
Luck-adjusted margin
Newcastle by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Aston Villa 2% · draw 36% · Newcastle 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 37 matches, 2015-16 · Aston Villa · Newcastle

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