Matchday 37 · Premier League 2015-16 · May 7, 2016
Bournemouth 1–1 West Brom: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth and West Brom drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Bournemouth win 2 of 10, West Brom 6, and 2 end level. West Brom made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 0.98 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 1.69 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Bournemouth about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 2, 2 end level, West Brom win 6.
- 1 BOU 2 WBA 1
- 2 BOU 2 WBA 0
- 3 BOU 1 WBA 1
- 4 BOU 1 WBA 1
- 5 BOU 0 WBA 4
- 6 BOU 0 WBA 3
- 7 BOU 0 WBA 2
- 8 BOU 0 WBA 2
- 9 BOU 0 WBA 1
- 10 BOU 0 WBA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 17%, 21% end level, West Brom win 62%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 1.3% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 3.9% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 11.3% |
| Draw | 21.3% |
| West Brom by 1 | 23.6% |
| West Brom by 2 | 20.0% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 18.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 13 | 1 | 0.98 | +0.02 |
 West Brom | 12 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.69 | −0.69 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Craig Gardner didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 14' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 42' | Craig Gardner didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 81' | Matt Ritchie scored from a shot | 0.50 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
As low as 6% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Craig Gardner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +8% BOU |
| 2 | 14' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +22% WBA |
| 3 | 42' | Craig Gardner didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +13% BOU |
| 4 | 46' | Benik Afobe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% WBA |
| 5 | 79' | Andrew Surman didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% WBA |
| 6 | 81' | Matt Ritchie scored from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +23% BOU |
| 7 | 84' | Callum Wilson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% WBA |
| 8 | 86' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% BOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 16% · draw 28% · West Brom 56%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Bournemouth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 17% · draw 21% · West Brom 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 37 matches, 2015-16 · Bournemouth · West Brom
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